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From J.D. Energy: J.D. Energy-GlobalData Forecast September 2025 Transient excerpt:
Complete new-vehicle gross sales for September 2025, together with retail and non-retail transactions, are projected to succeed in 1,232,200, a 0.1% enhance yr over yr, in keeping with a joint forecast from J.D. Energy and GlobalData. September 2025 has 24 promoting days, yet another than September 2024. Evaluating the identical gross sales quantity with out adjusting for the variety of promoting days interprets to a rise of 4.5% from 2024.
The seasonally adjusted annualized fee (SAAR) for complete new-vehicle gross sales is anticipated to be 16.2 million items, up 0.3 million items from September 2024.
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Thomas King, president of the information and analytics division at J.D. Energy:
“In combination, September gross sales outcomes level to a different month of robust demand for brand spanking new automobiles. Nonetheless, as has been the case for the previous few months, assessing the well being of the trade requires a more in-depth take a look at the underlying market dynamics.
“The largest driver of September’s robust gross sales tempo is quickly inflated demand for electrical automobiles. The federal EV tax credit score expires on the finish of the month, which is inflicting many patrons to speed up their buy. EV share of retail gross sales is anticipated to succeed in a document of 12.2% this month—up 2.6 proportion factors from a yr in the past. On a quantity foundation, this equates to a 27.5% enhance in EV gross sales—promoting day adjusted—from a yr in the past. Conversely, demand for non-EVs is muted, with non-EV gross sales down 2.5% this month from a yr in the past. The second key driver is affordability. Though once more, the EV dynamic means combination outcomes want cautious analysis. In totality, common automobile costs proceed to rise, reductions stay low and month-to-month finance funds are at document highs—all of which impacts the general gross sales tempo.”
emphasis added
From Haig Stoddard at Omdia (pay web site): US Mild Automobile Gross sales in September Monitoring to One other Achieve as Auto Business Casts a Cautious Eye on 4Q
September US light-vehicle gross sales will proceed the market power seen all yr, however all eyes are on the fourth quarter as tariff-related pull-ahead quantity dissipates, EV credit disappear, and automakers value their ’26 fashions.
Click on on graph for bigger picture.
This graph exhibits precise gross sales from the BEA (Blue), and J.D. Energy’s forecast for September (Crimson).
On a seasonally adjusted annual fee foundation, the J.D. Energy forecast of 16.2 million SAAR could be up 0.8% from final month, and up 2.5% from a yr in the past.
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