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Two attention-grabbing footage. First, the reliance of US GDP development on Tech Spending.
Supply: DB, 24 Sep 2025.
The second, from the OECD’s Financial Outlook Interim Report (Sept 2025).
Supply: OECD, Financial Outlook Interim Report (Sep. 2025), Determine 9.
For the reason that CPI has risen about 23% since January 2021, then the LSEG ex-technology index has risen solely about 20% in actual (CPI-deflated) phrases, or slightly greater than 5% per 12 months.
One other manner to have a look at this focus of returns is to contemplate that in nominal phrases, the Russell 2000 for small cap companies is at about the identical degree as on the finish of 2022.
So, continued GDP development within the US depends upon a continuation of the growth in IT-related shares and funding.
Addendum:
From Yardeni:
Supply: Yardeni, accessed 9/27/2025.
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