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by Calculated Threat on 9/24/2025 10:00:00 AM
The Census Bureau experiences New House Gross sales in August have been at a seasonally adjusted annual price (SAAR) of 800 thousand.
The earlier three months have been revised up, mixed.
Gross sales of latest single-family homes in August 2025 have been at a seasonally-adjusted annual price of 800,000, based on
estimates launched collectively right now by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Division of Housing and City Improvement.
That is 20.5 % above the July 2025 price of 664,000, and is 15.4 % above the August 2024 price of 693,000.
emphasis added
Click on on graph for bigger picture.
The primary graph exhibits New House Gross sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the present gross sales price.
New residence gross sales have been above pre-pandemic ranges.
The second graph exhibits New House Months of Provide.
The months of provide was decreased in August to 7.4 months from 9.0 months in July.
The all-time document excessive was 12.2 months of provide in January 2009. The all-time document low was 3.3 months in August 2020.
That is above the highest of the conventional vary (about 4 to six months of provide is regular).
“The seasonally-adjusted estimate of latest homes on the market on the finish of August 2025 was 490,000. That is 1.4 %
beneath the July 2025 estimate of 497,000, and is 4.0 % above the August 2024
estimate of 471,000.This represents a provide of seven.4 months on the present gross sales price. The months’ provide is 17.8 % beneath the July 2025 estimate of 9.0 months, and is 9.8 % beneath the August 2024 estimate of 8.2 months.”
Gross sales have been properly above expectations of 653 thousand SAAR and gross sales for the three earlier months have been revised up, mixed. I am going to have extra later right now.
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