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by Calculated Threat on 10/03/2025 01:15:00 PM
From BofA:
Since our final weekly publication, 3Q GDP monitoring elevated to 2.8% q/q saar from 2.6%
after 2Q GDP got here in at 3.8% within the third estimate. [October 3rd estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman:
We boosted our Q3 GDP monitoring estimate by 0.2pp to +2.8% (quarter-over-quarter annualized), reflecting stronger shopper spending in August and a extra favorable month-to-month path between Q2 and Q3 than we had beforehand assumed. Our Q3 home remaining gross sales estimate now stands at +1.9%. [September 26th estimate]
And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow mannequin estimate for actual GDP development (seasonally adjusted annual fee) within the third quarter of 2025 is 3.8 p.c on October 1, down from 3.9 p.c on September 26. After this morning’s launch from the Institute for Provide Administration, a lower within the nowcast of third-quarter actual private consumption expenditures development from 3.4 p.c to three.2 p.c was partially offset by a rise within the nowcast of actual gross non-public home funding development from 4.1 p.c to 4.2 p.c. The US Census Bureau building spending report was not launched this morning due to the federal government shutdown. We plan on sustaining the discharge schedule all through the shutdown however will skip updates if there aren’t any month-to-month information releases because the final GDPNow replace. [October 1st estimate]
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