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The Administration is mulling a $10-14 billion bailout bundle for ag producers, with emphasis on soybean farmers (deja vu!). Farmer sentiment is fairly low relative to the exuberance word within the aftermath of Trump’s election, as this Purdue/CME survey launched at the moment reveals:
Expectations are low partially due to the sharp lower in inflation adjusted (CPI) commodity receipts over the earlier two years, mixed with rising enter prices.
Determine 1: Farm internet money earnings (daring black line), authorities assist (tan bar), remainder of earnings (blue bar), bills (inexperienced bar), all in bn2025$. 2025 determine is ERS estimate. Supply: ERS USDA (Sept 2025).
Have been it not for (estimated) authorities assist, internet (money) earnings can be flat, in actual phrases). Furthermore, if one plotted the identical graph with authorities assist as a share of internet earnings, it might turn out to be clearer how dependent the ag sector is on assist, given the commerce battle.
(China has not purchased any soybeans since Could, and in September has purchased none, and has not commitments to purchase — a primary in many years.)
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