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EIA hikes US oil output forecast, warns oversupply will slash costs

EditorialBy EditorialOctober 9, 2025No Comments2 Mins Read

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NEW YORK (Reuters) -U.S. oil manufacturing is predicted to hit a bigger report this yr than beforehand anticipated, the Vitality Info Administration mentioned on Tuesday, even because the company warned {that a} glut of oil will weigh on costs within the months forward.

The Division of Vitality’s statistical arm expects U.S. oil manufacturing to common 13.53 million barrels per day this yr, up from its prior forecast of 13.44 million bpd. Oil output averaged 13.23 bpd final yr, which was the prior report.

The anticipated surge in U.S. output defies rising considerations that the oil market is oversupplied, with the EIA noting that it expects crude oil inventories to rise all through subsequent yr and put important downward stress on costs within the months forward.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude costs are anticipated to common round $65 a barrel this yr, the EIA mentioned, a 15% decline from final yr. Brent crude oil costs are anticipated to common round $68.64 a barrel, down almost 15% from final yr, the EIA mentioned.

The revision to EIA’s U.S. oil output forecast was on account of greater manufacturing in July than the company had beforehand estimated, it mentioned. The EIA additionally raised its forecasts for manufacturing from the offshore U.S. Gulf area, noting that some initiatives there are ramping up sooner than it anticipated.

The offshore Gulf is predicted to be the principle beneficiary of U.S. President Donald Trump‘s efforts to decontrol the power business in his bid to unleash extra home output. The EIA mentioned it expects offshore U.S. Gulf oil output to common 1.89 million bpd this yr, up from its earlier forecast of 1.84 million bpd.

(Reporting by Shariq Khan and Scott DiSavino in New YorkEditing by Rod Nickel)

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