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There was quite a lot of excited commentary in regards to the Trump-Putin telephone name, after which it seems Trump over-hyped the concept that one other Trump-Putin summit would occur quickly. Not even having seen the kinda-sorta readouts, Douglas Macgregor was of the “show it to me” college when it comes to seeing if this gambit amounted to a significant step ahead. When you learn the Trump assertion and the recap of the telephone name from Putin’s aide Yury Ushakov, reproduced in full from the Kremlin web site on the finish of this submit, there may be certainly a lot much less right here than the excited reactions would have you ever imagine. Importantly, the Ushakov remarks clarify that the much-ballyhooed thought of a subsequent summit was mentioned however not agreed by the Russian aspect. Recall additionally that Trump simply claimed in a name with Modi that Modi had agreed to cease importing Russian oil. India issued a tortured-so-as-apparently-not-to-call-Trump-a-liar denial.
As we’ll evaluation, the sensible significance of this name and follow-up conferences seems extra to be to purchase each Trump and Putin extra room for maneuver domestically. A associated component of significance is that the decision mildly disproves the latest din of criticism in Russia, even by the Russian International Ministry, that the method that Putin tried to get began within the Alaska summit was useless. That has been to substantiate the argument by hardliners who’re apparently getting a lot the broader public that Putin has been means too comfortable in his prosecution of the Ukraine struggle and vis-a-vis Trump, that Russia ought to stop playing around with pretending that there’s any level in speaking to the West, and the one decision to the struggle is a navy one. Regardless that yours really doesn’t observe the Russian press, even at this appreciable take away, it has been obvious that the Russian media, together with even Putin’s favourite Pavel Zarubin, has been questioning Putin aggressively on this subject, which is out of character for the press pool.
Nevertheless, this doesn’t change the truth that there shall be no negotiated settlement to this struggle, absent “negotiation” being Russia permitting Ukraine to get some very delicate softening of a capitulation settlement or maybe some “negotiation” with a successor regime in rump Ukraine after the present one decamps to arrange a authorities in exile. There is no such thing as a overlap between the Russian and the Ukraine/US/EU place. Ukraine and many of the European states won’t settle for a impartial Ukraine and specifically, a dedication that it not eveh be part of NATO (or a militarized EU as strategy to evade the requirement). Ukraine has autonomy; the US can’t do a cope with Russia over Ukraine’s head. Admittedly, the US may compel Ukraine to fall into line by slicing off all intelligence however Congress wouldn’t tolerate that. Recall Lindsey Graham threatened Trump with the declare that he had 80 votes, as in additional than sufficient to prevail in an impeachment trial, for his “bone-crushing” sanctions. Graham can presumably spherical up the identical suspects once more.
When you take a look at the Alaska summit, it did accomplish two small issues. First, Putin did handle to steer Trump to drop his insistence on “ceasefire first, negotions subsequent”. Remember that this can be a course of difficulty, and never a substance (what does a peace quantity to?) difficulty. As skeptics accurately identified, this appeared merely like a gambit for Ukraine to regroup and try to rearm.
Second, recall that proper earlier than the Alaska gathering was arrange, Trump was underneath very heavy strain by Graham and Richard Blumenthal to impose these “bone crushing secondary sanctions on nations that traded in Russian oil, which might kill commerce with China and lots of others stone chilly useless. Trump could have believed different nations may knuckle underneath however was within the technique of discovering with India that they had been a backfire. So the summit additionally allowed him to carry off the calls for of the Russia hawks. Shopping for time was productive. First, it grew to become evident no less than to some that that they had failed with India. Second, the Trump staff lastly got here up with its show-stopper: it might impose them provided that the EU did too. Their refusal enabled Trump to wave off Graham’s and Blumenthal’s calls for.
Recall that the brand new escalatory demand has been for the US to equip Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles. The pretense that little inexperienced males aside from People can function them is much more ludicrous than with different US methods.
Regardless that specialists have debunked 5 methods to Sunday whether or not this may even be accomplished. Considered one of many points: to maintain the pretense is that Ukraine is working the missiles, it might must be a ground-launched system. The one one which perhaps exists now could be ginormous and Russia may virtually actually destroy the platform. On high of that wee downside, there are too few missiles to make any distinction. See Black Mountain Evaluation for an exhaustive evaluation of the overall difficulty.
Nevertheless, this step is massively provocative as a mere thought. Tomahawks are nuclear succesful. Even when Russia is completely sure not one of the Tomahawks fired at it had been nuclear-equipped, it can’t enable this precedent. Putin and others have been strolling the road of not getting hair-on-fire about this (which might embolden the numerous nutters within the US and NATO states) whereas making an attempt to convey that this is able to be a Very Dangerous thought.
Putin seems to have made progress on that entrance in his dialog:
One telephone name and Tomahawk Missiles are off the desk and Trump is hustling to Budapest to fulfill with Putin. pic.twitter.com/tkU2qLKbIg
— Maine (@TheMaineWonk) October 16, 2025
And the mere timing of the decision is a kick within the head to Zelensky, who’s in Washington in the present day to demand these Tomahawks. From the BBC:
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will meet with US President Donald Trump in Washington on Friday, as Trump weighs whether or not to arm Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles able to hanging deep into Russia.
In fact, Zelensky tried spinning that Russia was working from weak spot. From the identical account:
As Zelensky arrived within the US, his third go to since January, he mentioned Moscow was “speeding to renew dialogue as quickly because it hears about Tomahawks”.
However we have to step again and take a look at the larger context of the on-again, off once more US-Russia talks. Since conferences began in Istanbul, Russia has been making an attempt to get the US to barter in a grown-up method, as in a means that can produce satisfactory understanding between the 2 sides in order to result in detailed agreements that either side can and can respect.
Right here I fail to grasp why Russia bothers, save to considerably reverse the very unhealthy baseline between the 2 nations. The US has established repeatedly and constantly that it’s totally untrustworthy. So except the Russian aspect are idiots, the aim right here is to not attain an settlement, however to enhance communications and considerably cut back the extent of bewilderment and friction, notably in order to keep away from a nuclear struggle (keep in mind each struggle sport the US has performed out between the US and Russia has led to a nuclear conflagration).
Russia has proposed that every aspect pursue three tracks and had recognized what every staff ought to pursue. When criticized that this was all too low-level, Russia had even supplied to deploy extra senior officers (although its staff really was heavyweight; the US suffers from Large Man syndrome, as so apparently anybody much less that international minister Lavrov won’t do).
It was evident that the US was not ready to do something. Russia has some preliminary calls for, together with returning its impermissibly seized US diplomatic property and re-opening direct flights. The failure to do both factors to US unseriousness and/or appreciable bureaucratic opposition. I’d regulate these two issues as indictors of whether or not this new initiative is getting wherever.
Now with that background, the place do issues really stand? First from Trump:
So Trump admits to creating a “form of the desk” concession to Putin, that there shall be decrease degree discussions first, albeit not all that a lot decrease, earlier than a summit.
Given the US sample of not getting ready for discussions, I’d not maintain my breath about progress being made shortly. Putin has mentioned he was at all times prepared to fulfill with Trump if groundwork had been laid. One has to surprise what Steve Witkoff mentioned in his three hours in particular person on the Kremlin to get Putin to relent and decide to the Alaska summit. It took Witkoff 5 hours to tee up this dialog.
As you possibly can see from Ushakov’s abstract under, Putin has not but agreed to a summit:
In this context, it’s worthy of word that the presidents mentioned the chance of holding one other private assembly. That is certainly a very important improvement. It was agreed that representatives of each international locations would instantly start preparations for the summit, which may probably be organised in Budapest, for occasion.
Discover the inconsistent tone: “instantly” teeing up an excellent that’s merely a chance. The squaring of that circle could merely be getting some nationwide chief to conform to be a bunch if and when issues progress. In preserving, Putins’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov is speaking down timing expectations. From TASS in Putin-Trump assembly to be ready steadily, many points to be resolved — Kremlin:
Preparations for a gathering between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his US counterpart Donald Trump shall be in a number of levels, because the leaders of diplomatic companies are engaged on resolving a lot of points, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov mentioned at a press briefing, replying to a query by TASS.
“The factor is that the problem shall be labored out by International Minister Sergey Lavrov and Secretary of State Rubio,” the Kremlin official famous. “First, they’ll have a telephone dialog and meet, and maintain discussions on the subject, start talk about all points,” he famous.
“There are quite a lot of points – it’s vital to find out negotiating groups,” Peskov mentioned. “Every little thing shall be in levels,” he added.
As to Budapest, maybe Putin was too well mannered to level out in actual time, assuming Trump urged Hungary on the decision, that Trump is map-challenged:
It’s nonetheless not recognized how Putin intends to get to Budapest for a possible summit, contemplating that Hungary is a landlocked county and all the international locations surrounding it might most likely refuse to permit an plane operated by the Russian Authorities, particularly one carrying Putin,… https://t.co/BL3kSk4cnA pic.twitter.com/5MzJ06VKlQ
— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) October 16, 2025
And that is simply cheesy:
It’s noteworthy that one among the US President’s key arguments centred on the premise that the decision of the battle in Ukraine would open up super – and he harassed this – super prospects for the improvement of US-Russian financial cooperation.
These impatient with the progress of the battle could also be pissed off that these talks will assist Putin in slow-walking the struggle, which is what they imagine he has been doing. However one has to notice that even earlier than this name, Mark Sleboda, who has been probably the most correct English-speaking commentator in projecting how it might advance, is now discussing Russian operations persevering with into 2027. In fact, that pre-supposes no collapse, which may come about as a result of electrical energy struggle, versus the tempo of operations within the east.
Nevertheless, recall that to Trump’s appreciable anger, Russia didn’t sluggish its conduct of the struggle after the Alaska gathering. However there’s a case to be made for Russia persevering with to (merely) attrit Ukraine. We’re seeing authorities in Europe begin to break underneath the strain of hysterical calls for for extra weapons versus butter as requirements of residing are already falling as a result of reverberating influence of the rejection of low cost Russian gasoline. A “proper wing” as in not-keen-about-fighting Russia coalition underneath Andrej Babis is forming a brand new authorities within the Czech Republic. Macron is a useless man strolling in France. It’s an open query as as to whether he can maintain off calling Parliamentary election till his time period ends in Could 2027, however each the left and Rassemblement Nationale are in opposition to extra spending for Venture Ukraine. The longer the struggle continues, the extra EU member states will go into revolt. In order a lot as endurance is exasperating, there may be technique to this insanity.
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From the Kremlin web site, Commentary by Aide to the President of Russia Yury Ushakov following a phone dialog between Vladimir Putin and President of the US Donald Trump:
Aide to the President of Russia Yury Ushakov: Colleagues,
At the moment in the afternoon, Vladimir Putin had a phone dialog, the eighth one, with US President Donald Trump.
The dialog lasted virtually two and a half hours. Clearly, it was a reasonably substantive and at the identical time very open and frank trade.
Our President began out by congratulating Donald Trump on his profitable efforts to normalise the state of affairs in the Gaza Strip. The US President’s peace work has been duly appreciated in the Center East, in the United States itself, and in most international locations across the world.
Naturally, the Russian aspect outlined its principled place in favour of a complete Center East settlement on a typically recognised worldwide authorized foundation that will guarantee lasting peace for all of the peoples in that area.
A particular emphasis in the course of the dialog was positioned on the Ukraine disaster. Vladimir Putin offered a detailed evaluation of the present state of affairs, stressing Russia’s curiosity in attaining a peaceable decision via political and diplomatic strategies.
In explicit, it was famous that in the course of the particular navy operation, the Russian Armed Forces maintain full strategic initiative alongside the whole line of contact. Beneath these circumstances, the Kiev regime resorts to terrorist strategies, attacking civilian targets and vitality infrastructure amenities, to which we’re pressured to reply accordingly.
Donald Trump repeatedly emphasised the crucial of establishing peace in Ukraine at the earliest alternative. The notion that the Russian-Ukrainian battle has confirmed the most intractable difficulty in all peacekeeping efforts of the US President was palpably evident all through his remarks in the course of the dialog. In this context, he naturally talked about his successes in settling eight different regional conflicts.
It’s noteworthy that one among the US President’s key arguments centred on the premise that the decision of the battle in Ukraine would open up super – and he harassed this – super prospects for the improvement of US-Russian financial cooperation.
By the way, either side spoke of the profound mutual affinity between the peoples of the two international locations, which was so vividly demonstrated in the course of the Second World Conflict. It was underscored that the present state of bilateral relations seems paradoxical in opposition to this backdrop.
The difficulty of potential provides of long-range Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine was additionally raised. Vladimir Putin reiterated his place that Tomahawks wouldn’t change the state of affairs on the battlefield however would inflict substantial injury to relations between our international locations, to say nothing of the prospects for a peaceable settlement.
In this context, it’s worthy of word that the presidents mentioned the chance of holding one other private assembly. That is certainly a very important improvement. It was agreed that representatives of each international locations would instantly start preparations for the summit, which may probably be organised in Budapest, for occasion.
On a separate word, it ought to be talked about that our President extremely praised private efforts of the First Woman of the United States Melania Trump in reuniting Russian and Ukrainian kids with their households and requested the US President to convey his highest needs to his partner.
General, I would say that the phone contact between the presidents of Russia and the United States was fairly helpful, and the two leaders agreed to preserve contact.
Thanks for the eye.
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