A report launched by Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode on Oct. 20, 2025, reveals that almost all traders imagine the Bitcoin bull market will proceed over the following 3–6 months. Researchers surveyed institutional traders and produced a crypto market outlook based mostly on their responses. The report’s subtitle, “Navigating Uncertainty,” resonates with the latest nosedive following a brand new Bitcoin all-time excessive.
Abstract
- Researchers from Coinbase Institutional and monetary consulting firm Glassnode surveyed 124 traders between Sept. 17 and Oct. 3, 2025. 67% of institutional and 62% of impartial inventors are bullish on Bitcoin for the following 3-6 months.
- Virtually half of the surveyed establishments (45%) imagine that the bull market is in its ultimate stage. Solely 27% of surveyed impartial respondents share this stance. Each classes named the macro setting as the largest threat for the next 3-6 months.
- 39% and 40% of surveyed institutional and impartial traders imagine that Bitcoin dominance will keep on the 55-60% degree within the subsequent 3-6 months.
The report begins with a foreword by David Duong, Coinbase Institutional’s head of analysis, who expects favorable macroeconomic, regulatory, and coverage situations. He believes digital asset treasury firms will proceed to amplify crypto demand; new price cuts by year-end may assist mobilize $7 trillion in idle funds.
Duong additionally outlines a number of challenges, together with the federal government shutdown, which limits entry to key financial information, and the unsure long-term viability of the DAT enterprise mannequin. The survey information are complemented by the authors’ market insights.
In line with the report, researchers have a stance of “cautiously optimistic” on This fall 2025. They title the present market situations particularly good for Bitcoin.
Discrepancies between institutional and impartial traders
As researchers surveyed 61 establishments and 63 impartial traders, the outcomes define variations between their views of the market tendencies.
First off, whereas each classes are optimistic about Bitcoin, most institutional respondents imagine that the present bull market stage is ultimate. Impartial traders reasonably assume we’re on the accumulation or the markup stage.
One other slight discrepancy is the view on large-cap altcoins. The place 38% of surveyed establishments imagine altcoins would be the finest performers within the subsequent 3-6 months, solely 29% of impartial traders share this view.
Independents are extra bullish on DATs with 14% vs. 8% of establishments. Notably, the share of institutional respondents who imagine Bitcoin would be the worst-performing asset matches the share that believes DATs would be the best-performing (8% every), although the report doesn’t point out whether or not these have been the identical respondents.
15% of impartial traders see Bitcoin as the doubtless worst-performing crypto asset for the rest of 2025. 60% of establishments see small-cap altcoins because the worst asset, whereas solely 42% of impartial traders share the identical stance.
Each classes cite a worsening macro setting as the largest threat (establishments 38%, independents 29%). Geopolitical dangers, hacks, and regulatory failures alarm each teams equally. Establishments seem much less involved than independents about liquidity drops and potential DAT failures.
Shared beliefs
Each teams typically imagine that the U.S. Securities and Change Fee’s approval for single-name spot crypto ETFs will function a market driver. Independents are considerably extra optimistic in regards to the constructive influence of ETF approvals. Solely 13–14% of respondents in each teams count on no influence from SEC approvals.
The survey signifies that each teams see reserve token burning and growth spending as the 2 primary priorities for crypto firms with sizable token treasuries.
Each independents and establishments known as DATs “essentially the most traded commerce in crypto” proper now (although technically, DAT shares aren’t crypto). Independents see Bitcoin as equally “crowded,” whereas establishments view Solana as second to DATs.
An Rising Tendencies part
The second half of the report is the evaluation of recent market tendencies and the Bitcoin and Ethereum tendencies research. This former part clearly exhibits that the summer season of 2025 noticed a drastic improve in DATs holding ETH and SOL. Earlier than, Bitcoin-holding firms have been sole rulers.
As for the market dominance, researchers outlined a 7% Bitcoin dominance lower in Q3 (earlier than climbing in September), whereas ETH dominance grew by 4%. The info on Bitcoin and ETH spot ETFs progress displays the ETH ETFs’ horizontal progress from July to September 2025. Recently, its progress has been extra shaky. Bitcoin ETF progress has been extra gradual and regular.
In August, ETH ETF inflows outperformed Bitcoin ETF inflows by 10x, triggering debate about whether or not ETH has the potential to flip Bitcoin.
The 4-year cycle graphs for Bitcoin and Ether present that the present cycle (it began in 2022) is completely different. It lacks immense rallies and reasonably presents gradual buildups and declines. This cycle, Ether notably lacked the rallies it had in earlier cycles. As an alternative, it had a long-term decline.
Bitcoin and Ethereum tendencies
As for Bitcoin tendencies, the newest months confirmed that even when Bitcoin value was reaching new highs, long-term traders most well-liked to not money out. It marked a brand new development. The sentiment step by step moved from perception to nervousness within the first half of 2025 after which flipped again in Q3.
The Ethereum tendencies part emphasizes that for the primary time, Ether ETF inflows ($9.4 billion) exceeded BTC ETF inflows ($8 billion). In line with the report, the liquid and illiquid ETH holdings correlation in Q3 signifies that many long-term ETH traders most well-liked to money out as quickly as ETH noticed a rally. ETH and different L2 blockchains noticed a record-breaking quantity of transactions whereas the charges have been the bottom in 2 years.
