The federal government shutdown is delaying the announcement for the 2026 federal retiree cost-of-living adjustment which impacts these retired below the Civil Service Retirement System (CSRS) and the Federal Workers Retirement System (FERS).
The COLA for subsequent 12 months will likely be introduced as soon as September client value index data is on the market (which was scheduled for launch on Oct. 15). Because of the federal authorities shutdown, the CPI knowledge launch has been rescheduled to Oct. 24.
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This assertion from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) was revealed on Oct. 10:
“September 2025 CPI Launch Rescheduled: BLS will publish the September 2025 Client Value Index (CPI) on Friday, October 24, 2025, at 8:30 A.M. Japanese Time. No different releases will likely be rescheduled or produced till the resumption of standard authorities providers. This launch permits the Social Safety Administration to fulfill statutory deadlines obligatory to make sure the correct and well timed cost of advantages.”
2026 COLA Estimate
The Senior Citizen’s League’s (TSCL) mannequin of estimating the cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for retirees factors to a 2.7 p.c enhance.
TSCL’s 2026 COLA estimate issued yesterday is barely above final 12 months’s precise COLA, which was 2.5 p.c.
The 2025 federal retiree cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) was 2.5 p.c for these below the Civil Service Retirement System (CSRS) and a pair of.0 p.c for these below the Federal Workers Retirement System (FERS).
“However even with that bump, it nonetheless received’t be sufficient to cowl the rising prices seniors face,” TSCL posted in an e mail announcement. “On a regular basis necessities like housing, healthcare, and groceries proceed to climb quicker than the COLA can sustain with.”
“The issue isn’t simply the share, it’s the components,” TSCL wrote. “The federal government nonetheless makes use of the Client Value Index for City Wage Earners (CPI-W) to calculate the COLA, regardless that it doesn’t replicate how seniors truly spend their cash.”
Every month, TSCL points a brand new prediction of the following COLA for Social Safety utilizing our statistical mannequin. “Our mannequin incorporates the Client Value Index, the Federal Reserve rate of interest, and the nationwide unemployment fee to make its predictions,” TSCL says.
TSCL is looking on Congress to undertake the Client Value Index for the Aged (CPI-E) — advocating that it’s a extra honest measure that may defend retirees’ shopping for energy.
TSCL’s 2025 Senior Survey Report discovered that about 13 p.c of seniors get by on lower than $1,000 a month after taxes and deductions, which is lower than the price of a modest condo in most cities. The analysis additionally discovered that 39 p.c of beneficiaries rely upon Social Safety for one hundred pc of their revenue.
“Seniors must be involved as inflation continues to tick upward. TSCL’s analysis exhibits that there’s a severe disconnect between the inflation the federal government stories and the inflation that seniors expertise daily,” stated TSCL Govt Director Shannon Benton. “If the federal government tells us that costs are rising quicker, it’s possible that seniors are already feeling the crunch.”
The official 2026 COLA will likely be launched by the Social Safety Administration (SSA) on Oct. 24, 2025. The SSA will calculate the p.c change between common costs within the third quarter of the present 12 months (ending on Sept. 30) with the third quarter of the earlier 12 months.
