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And CPI nowcasted to rise in August, too:
Determine 1: Instantaneous inflation for core CPI (black, left scale), chained core CPI (grey, left scale), core PCE deflator (gentle blue, left scale), core PPI (crimson, proper scale). Core PCE inflation for August is Cleveland Fed y/y nowcast as of 9/1. All per Eeckhout (2023), T=12, a=4. Supply: BLS, BEA, by way of FRED, and creator’s calculations.
Word that 3.1%, core PCE instantaneous inflation is now over a share level above the two% goal (y/y inflation is 2.9%).
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