by Calculated Danger on 10/27/2025 02:41:00 PM
From J.D. Energy: October New-Automobile Gross sales Decline as EV Pull-Forward Reverses; EV Share Falls to five.3% Following Incentive Expiration Transient excerpt:
Complete new-vehicle gross sales for October 2025, together with retail and non-retail transactions, are projected to achieve 1,249,800, a 6.9% lower year-over-year, in keeping with a joint forecast from J.D. Energy and GlobalData. October 2025 has 27 promoting days, the identical as October 2024.
The seasonally adjusted annualized charge (SAAR) for whole new-vehicle gross sales is anticipated to be 15.1 million models, down 1.1 million models from October 2024.
…
Thomas King, president of the information and analytics division at J.D. Energy:“October’s outcomes mirror a notable, however anticipated decline within the new-vehicle gross sales tempo, due nearly fully to gross sales of electrical automobiles.
“The expiration of federal EV credit on Sept. 30 brought about EV consumers to tug forward their purchases, driving a major improve in EV gross sales and inflating the general trade gross sales tempo. In September, EVs accounted for 12.9% of new-vehicle retail gross sales, the best ever, and effectively above the 8.5% recorded a 12 months earlier. Now that the federal EV credit score has expired, the trade is coping with the implications of these accelerated purchases. In October, EVs signify simply 5.2% of new-vehicle retail gross sales. On a quantity foundation, EVs account for 1.0 million of the 1.2 million-unit decline within the trade gross sales tempo in contrast with a month in the past.
emphasis added
From Haig Stoddard at Omdia (pay website): Forecast Decline in October US Mild Automobile Gross sales Prone to Proceed in November, December
US mild car gross sales are forecast to say no 3.6% year-over-year in October, solely the second downturn this 12 months. Nevertheless, downturns are forecast to proceed because of lean stock, a rising combine of upper priced automobiles, and the tip of the EV credit score.
Click on on graph for bigger picture.
This graph reveals precise gross sales from the BEA (Blue), and J.D. Energy’s forecast for October (Pink).
On a seasonally adjusted annual charge foundation, the J.D. Energy forecast of 15.1 million SAAR can be down 7.9% from final month, and down 6.3% from a 12 months in the past.
All of This fall will probably be tough for car gross sales.
