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Municipals have been comparatively regular all through many of the curve, whereas U.S. Treasuries have been little modified and equities bought off.
The 2-year muni-UST ratio Monday was at 68%, the five-year at 65%, the 10-year at 67% and the 30-year at 88%, in line with Municipal Market Knowledge’s 3 p.m. EDT learn. ICE Knowledge Companies had the two-year at 68%, the five-year at 64%, the 10-year at 67% and the 30-year at 87% at a 4 p.m. learn.
“Regardless of weaker rates of interest, the muni market continued to commerce with a agency tone because the … AAA MMD curve ignored the financial headlines and was saved unchanged every single day [last week],” mentioned Birch Creek strategists.
Munis have been comparatively unchanged month-to-date, solely experiencing a mean bump of 1.7 foundation factors throughout the curve, mentioned Jason Wong, vice chairman of municipals at AmeriVet Securities.
“With these small bumps, the previous two weeks introduced returns for the month to a complete of detrimental 0.18%, and year-to-date returns to over 4.1%,” he mentioned.
Final week marked the tip of the longest-ever authorities shutdown. Now, traders will flip their consideration to the subsequent attainable price lower, as financial knowledge will decide whether or not the Federal Reserve will ease in December, Wong mentioned.
The “knowledge dumps” over the subsequent a number of weeks might result in market volatility, mentioned Abdulla Begai, director and stuck revenue portfolio administration at A&M Non-public Wealth Companions.
Moreover, tariffs — and whether or not the courts will adjudicate on them this 12 months — might additionally spark some volatility, he mentioned.
Provide fell final week as tax-exempt provide was between $8 billion and $9 billion, under this 12 months’s weekly common of $11 billion, Begai mentioned.
Exercise within the secondary market after Tuesday was barely elevated in comparison with regular, he mentioned.
Bids wanteds have been above $1 billion Wednesday by Friday, indicating purchasers are “repositioning portfolios, promoting to pay for brand new issuance bonds, and perhaps somewhat tax-loss harvesting,” Begai mentioned.
As USTs rose to finish the week, “sellers reported some warning setting in and general commerce volumes slowed down as consumers appeared to [this week’s large $16 billion calendar] for higher entry factors, Birch Creek strategists mentioned.
The brand new-issue calendar might find yourself being even bigger this week as there are round 5 pay as you go gasoline offers totaling roughly $3 billion on the day-to-day calendar, Begai mentioned.
Issuance will stay uneven from now till yearend because of the holidays, he mentioned.
Provide will fall the week of Nov. 24 because of the Thanksgiving vacation however will rebound the week of Dec. 1, as there are already a number of massive offers on the calendar, together with $1.016 billion of Utility Debt Securitization Authority restructuring bonds and $969 million of income bonds from the
Provide for 2026 will probably be much like, or perhaps barely decrease than, 2025 quantity, which is ready to surpass 2024’s document of $507.585 billion this week, Begai mentioned.
There was a heavy proliferation of issuance throughout the first half of this 12 months due to the worry of the tax exemption being gone, a subject that comes up each few years. However with this administration, there was somewhat extra uncertainty, he mentioned.
Provide will nonetheless be “sizable” subsequent 12 months as infrastructure and initiatives nonetheless have to be funded.
Within the major market Monday, J.P. Morgan priced for the Travis County Healthcare District, Texas, (Aa2///AA+/) $249.18 million of restricted tax certificates of obligation, with 5s of three/2027 at 2.69%, 5s of 2030 at 2.70%, 5s of 2035 at 3.00%, 5s of 2040 at 3.65%, 5s of 2045 at 4.25%, 5s of 2050 at 4.55% and 5.25s of 2055 at 4.59%, callable 3/1/2035.
AAA scales
MMD’s scale was little modified: 2.52% (-2) in 2026 and a pair of.46% (unch) in 2027. The five-year was 2.41% (unch), the 10-year was 2.75% (unch) and the 30-year was 4.14% (unch) at 3 p.m.
The ICE AAA yield curve was little modified: 2.54% (-1) in 2026 and a pair of.46% (unch) in 2027. The five-year was at 2.41% (+1), the 10-year was at 2.76% (unch) and the 30-year was at 4.11% (unch) at 4 p.m.
The S&P World Market Intelligence municipal curve was bumped three foundation factors at one-year: The one-year was at 2.52% (-3) in 2025 and a pair of.46% (unch) in 2026. The five-year was at 2.41% (unch), the 10-year was at 2.75% (unch) and the 30-year yield was at 4.12% (unch) at 3 p.m.
Bloomberg BVAL was unchanged: 2.51% in 2025 and a pair of.46% in 2026. The five-year at 2.37%, the 10-year at 2.70% and the 30-year at 4.04% at 4 p.m.
Treasuries have been little modified.
The 2-year UST was yielding 3.603% (-1), the three-year was at 3.604% (-1), the five-year at 3.718% (-1), the 10-year at 4.139% (-2), the 20-year at 4.704% (-2) and the 30-year at 4.734% (-2) close to the shut.
Major to return
Ascension (Aa3/AA/AA/) is ready to cost Tuesday $2.1 billion of taxable refunding company CUSIPs. Jefferies.
Ascension Well being Alliance (Aa3/AA/AA/) is ready to cost $1.745 billion of income bonds: $700.585 million of fixed-mode bonds, Sequence 2025A-1, by the Indiana Finance Authority; $273.5 million of long-term mode bonds, Sequence 2025B-1, by the Rutherford County Well being and Instructional Amenities Board, Tennessee; and $388.595 million of long-term mode bonds, Sequence 2025C-1, and $382.255 million of long-term mode bonds, Sequence 2025C-2, by the Tarrant County Cultural Training Amenities Finance Corp. Morgan Stanley.
The New York Metropolis Municipal Water Finance Authority (Aa1/AA+/AA+/) is ready to cost $1.032 billion of water and sewer system second common decision refunding income bonds, Fiscal 2026 Sequence AA, consisting of $600 million of Sequence AA-1 and $431.57 million of Sequence AA-2. Barclays.
Houston (/BB+//) is ready to cost Tuesday $521.75 million of AMT airport system particular amenities income bonds, consisting of $273.35 million of Sequence 2025B bonds (United Airways terminal enchancment initiatives); $145.6 million of Sequence 2025 bonds (United Airways catering operations facility mission); and $102.8 million of Sequence 2025 bonds (United Airways floor providers tools facility mission. BofA Securities.
The Ohio Water Growth Authority (Aaa/AAA//) is ready to cost Tuesday $500 million of water air pollution management mortgage fund income bonds. Jefferies.
The Gross sales Tax Securitization Corp. is ready to cost Wednesday $454.42 million of gross sales tax securitization bonds, consisting of $172.37 million of Sequence 2025A refunding bonds (/A+/AAA/AAA/), $206.485 of Sequence 2025A second lien refunding bonds (/A+/AA-/AA+/) and $57.11 million of Sequence 2025B taxable refunding bonds (/A+/AAA/AAA/). Goldman Sachs
The Los Angeles Neighborhood Faculty District (Aaa/AA+//) is ready to cost Thursday $300 million of 2016 Election GO refunding bonds, Sequence F. BofA Securities.
The Massachusetts Housing Finance Company (Aa2/AA+//) is ready to cost Tuesday $262.935 million of non-AMT sustainability housing bonds, consisting of $88.75 million of Sequence C-1 and $174.185 million of Sequence C-3. HilltopSecurities.
The Medical College Hospital Authority (Aa2/AA+//) is ready to cost Thursday $260.395 million of FHA-insured hospital mortgage income bonds (Indian Land Mission). BofA Securities.
Harris County, Texas, (Aa2//AA/) is ready to cost Tuesday $211.22 million of toll street first lien income refunding bonds, Sequence 2025A. Baird.
Hamilton County, Ohio, is ready to cost Thursday $207 million of gross sales tax bond anticipation notes. Subordinate Sequence 2025 (Paycor Stadium Enchancment Mission). Stifel, Nicolaus & Co.
The Phoenix Civic Enchancment Corp. (/AAA/AA+/) is ready to cost Tuesday $183.155 million of transportation excise tax income bonds, Sequence 2025. BofA Securities.
The Massachusetts Growth Finance Company (//BBB-/) is ready to cost Thursday $181.57 million of Tufts Medication problem income bonds, consisting of $30.05 million of Sequence F bonds and $151.52 million of Sequence G taxable bonds. BofA Securities.
The College of Pittsburgh Commonwealth System of Greater Training (Aa1/AA+//) is ready to cost $175.375 million of Pitt asset notes. Barclays.
The Grand Rapids Financial Growth Corp. is ready to cost Thursday $174.83 million of restricted obligation income bonds (Beacon Hill At Eastgate Mission), consisting of $107.83 million of Sequence A, $12.25 million of Sequence B-1, $15.75 million of Sequence B-2 and $39 million of Sequence B-3. Ziegler.
The College of Oklahoma Board of Regents (/AA-/A+/) is ready to cost Tuesday $171.91 million of tax-exempt common income refunding bonds, Sequence 2025A. Stifel, Nicolaus & Co.
Montgomery County, Texas, (Aaa/AA+//) is ready to cost Wednesday $154.585 million of restricted tax refunding bonds, Sequence 2025A. RBC Capital Markets.
The Genesee County Funding Corp. (/BBB+//) is ready to cost Wednesday $150 million of income bonds (Rochester Regional Well being Vitality Initiatives), consisting of $142.195 million of Sequence 2025A bonds and $7.805 million Sequence 2025B taxable bonds. BofA Securities.
The Helena Excessive Faculty District, Montana, (A1/AA//) is ready to cost Thursday $130 million of GO college constructing bonds. D.A. Davidson.
The Central Texas Regional Mobility Authority (A2/A+// and A3/A//) is ready to cost Tuesday $123.745 million of income refunding bonds, consisting of $76.065 million of Sequence 2025A senior lien bonds and $47.68 million of Sequence B subordinate lien bonds. Wells Fargo.
The Public Finance Authority is ready to cost Thursday $116.915 million of tax-exempt scholar housing income bonds (PRG — Oxford Properties LLC), Sequence 2025A. Raymond James.
Colorado (Aa2/AA-//) is ready to cost Tuesday $115.595 million of tax-exempt constructing wonderful faculties right this moment certificates of participation, Sequence 2025T. Piper Sandler.
The Chicago Park District (/AA-/AA/AA/) is ready to cost Tuesday $112.345 million of GO restricted tax park bonds, consisting of $55 million of Sequence 2025A bonds and $57.345 million of Sequence 2025B refunding bonds. Loop Capital Markets.
The Golden State Join Authority is ready to cost Thursday $106 million of telecommunications income bonds (Broadband Mission). KeyBanc Capital Markets.
Aggressive
The Missouri Highways and Transportation Fee (Aa1/AA+/AA+/) is ready to promote $481.78 million of state appropriations mega initiatives state street bonds, Sequence A 2025, at 11 a.m. Japanese Tuesday.
Illinois (/A/A+/) is ready to promote $300 million of Construct Illinois bonds (gross sales tax income bonds), Junior Obligation Sequence A of December 2025, at 10:45 a.m. Tuesday; $150 million of Construct Illinois bonds (gross sales tax income bonds), Junior Obligation Sequence B of December 2025, at 11:15 a.m. Tuesday; and $150 million of Construct Illinois bonds (gross sales tax income bonds), Junior Obligation Sequence C of December 2025, at 11:45 a.m. Tuesday.
Fulton County, Georgia, (Aa2/AA/AA/) is ready to promote $195.675 million of water and sewerage income refunding bonds at 10 a.m. Wednesday.
The Columbia County Faculty District, Georgia, (Aa1/AA//) is ready to promote $180 million of GOs, at 11 a.m. Tuesday.
The Davis Faculty District Board of Training, Utah, (Aaa///) is ready to promote $100 million of GOs, Sequence 2025B, at 11:30 a.m. Thursday.
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