Ganfeng Chairman’s Forecast Sparks Lithium Value Surge in China

CATL restart drives lithium volatility

China’s lithium market can also be seeing help from the delayed restart of Up to date Amperex Expertise’s (CATL) (SZSE:300750,HKEX:3750) Jianxiawo mine in Yichun.

The mine usually produces about 65,000 metric tons of lithium carbonate equal a 12 months, roughly 6 % of world provide. Nonetheless, it has been shut down since August after its working allow expired.

CATL is reportedly making progress at getting the mine again on-line, however no precise date has been given.

The shutdown has spilled into international markets as nicely. In September, Australian lithium shares fell sharply on the again of indicators that CATL’s restart may very well be approaching.

Oversupply nonetheless weighing on lithium market

Past China, the broader lithium market has struggled with imbalance all through 2025.

Costs spiked in July and August earlier than easing once more in September, with talks of potential provide cuts by Australian miners creating short-lived rallies regardless of robust inventories and rising manufacturing.

“The nascency of the lithium market signifies that it’s susceptible to be led by sentiment,” Fastmarkets’ Claudia Cook dinner wrote earlier this 12 months, noting how futures exercise has repeatedly drifted from fundamentals.

Oversupply stays the defining theme. International mined output has jumped 192 % since 2020, swelling inventories quicker than even sturdy electric-vehicle demand can take in.

Whereas electrical automobile gross sales topped 17 million models in 2024 and are anticipated to exceed 20 million this 12 months, manufacturing progress, together with a 22 % rise in mined provide in 2024, has stored the market in surplus.

Analysts have warned that the imbalance within the lithium sector may persist into the following decade except mine delays, venture cancelations or unexpectedly robust demand intervene.

Beijing’s new export controls have added one other layer of uncertainty.

Export controls introduced final month would mandate that Chinese language firms safe export licenses for high-energy lithium-ion batteries, artificial graphite anodes and significant manufacturing gear. China has delayed the implementation of those controls for one 12 months, till November 10, 2026, as a part of a take care of the US.

In opposition to that backdrop, the US is seeking to increase its provide of non-Chinese language lithium.

The US Division of Vitality launched the primary US$435 million from a US$2.23 billion mortgage to Lithium Americas (TSX:LAC,NYSE:LAC) in October, advancing building of the Thacker Go venture in Nevada — set to turn out to be the most important lithium supply within the western hemisphere as soon as on-line. The venture is central to Washington’s push to scale back dependence on Chinese language refining and safe home provides of battery-grade materials.

For now, China stays the clearest information for worth path. Monday’s futures bounce confirmed how shortly sentiment can transfer when main producers provide firmer demand alerts.