[ad_1]
Michigan November remaining nearly as low at June 2025:
Determine 1: U.Michigan Financial Sentiment (blue), Convention Board Confidence Index (brown), Gallup Confidence (inexperienced), all demeaned and divided by customary deviation 2021M01-2025m02. Purple dashed line at “Liberation Day” Supply: UMichigan, Gallup, Convention Board, and creator’s calculations.
If one used EJ Antoni’s (newest) definition of recession as “what People really feel”, then a easy probit of recession indicator on sentiment (FRED mnemonic UMCSENT) would inform us that we’re in a recession now (in addition to in 2022). Fortunately, professional economists don’t use this definition.
Michigan Sentiment mirrors Information Sentiment as measured by the SF Fed’s index, excepting the primary half of November:
Determine 2: College of Michigan Client Sentiment (blue, left scale), and Shapiro, Sudhof and Wilson (2020) SF Each day Information Sentiment Index (teal, proper scale). The Information Index commentary for November is thru 11/16/2025. Supply: U.Mich through FRED, SF Fed, and creator’s calculations.
[ad_2]
