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by Calculated Threat on 11/28/2025 02:25:00 PM
From J.D. Energy: November New-Car Retail Gross sales Decline 4.8% as Results of EV Pull-Forward Persist Transient excerpt:
Whole new-vehicle gross sales for November 2025, together with retail and non-retail transactions, are projected to achieve 1,255,900, a 5.2% lower yr over yr, in keeping with a joint forecast from J.D. Energy and GlobalData. November 2025 has 25 promoting days, one fewer than November 2024.
The seasonally adjusted annualized fee (SAAR) for whole new-vehicle gross sales is predicted to be 15.4 million models, down 1.2 million models from November 2024.
…
Thomas King, president of the info and analytics division at J.D. Energy:“November’s outcomes mirror one other notable—but anticipated—decline within the new-vehicle gross sales tempo, pushed largely by the pull-ahead of electrical car (EV) purchases previous to the expiration of federal EV tax credit on Sept. 30. That expiration prompted many patrons to speed up shopping for selections, leading to a surge in EV gross sales that briefly inflated the general business gross sales tempo. Now, two months after the credit score expired, the business continues to really feel the impact of these accelerated purchases. In November, EVs are anticipated to account for simply 6.0% of new-vehicle retail gross sales, in line with October however nicely beneath the 12.9% recorded in September.
emphasis added
From Haig Stoddard at Omdia (pay web site): US Mild Car Gross sales Declining Once more in November; Falling Stock Lowers Probability for a December Rebound
Tighter stock, tanking deliveries of battery-electric automobiles, and an general rise in costs for what is accessible are capping demand, with expectations the October-November slowdown continues in December.
Click on on graph for bigger picture.
This graph reveals precise gross sales from the BEA (Blue), and J.D. Energy’s forecast for November(Purple).
On a seasonally adjusted annual fee foundation, the J.D. Energy forecast of 154 million SAAR can be up barely from final month, and down 7.6% from a yr in the past.
All of This fall will probably be tough for car gross sales.
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