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Bloomberg consensus is +7K for ADP launch.
Determine 1: ADP personal nonfarm payroll employment (daring black), ARIMA(1,1,1) forecast (purple), +/- 1 std error (grey), Bloomberg consensus of 12/2 (mild blue sq.), all s.a. ARIMA estimated over 2022-2025M10 knowledge. Supply: ADP by way of FRED, Bloomberg, and creator’s calculations.
What does this suggest for the BLS personal NFP measure (implied preliminary benchmark)? Fairly flat motion in October and November…
Determine 2: ADP personal nonfarm payroll employment (daring black), Bloomberg consensus of 12/2 (mild blue sq.), BLS personal nonfarm payroll employment (brown), all s.a. Supply: ADP by way of FRED, Bloomberg, and creator’s calculations.
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