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I don’t have a decision to the controversy, however I’ve an perception, concerning per capita sequence (which is totally different from mixture statistics used to find out a recession), summarized in a pair graphs.
Determine 1: Actual consumption per capita, in Ch.2017$ SAAR (blue, left log scale), and U.Michigan Shopper Sentiment (tan, proper scale). FRED inhabitants sequence POPTHM used to calculate per capita consumption. December Sentiment in preliminary. Supply: BEA through FRED, U.Michigan Survey of Customers, and creator’s calculations.
Observe that not solely has consumption per capita flatlined, per capita actual retail gross sales is now beneath November 2024 peak.
Determine 2: Actual consumption per capita, in Ch.2017$ SAAR (blue, left log scale), actual retail gross sales per capita, in Ch.1999M12$ (chartreuse, proper log scale). Retail gross sales sequence deflated utilizing chained CPI, seasonally adjusted by creator utilizing X-13. FRED inhabitants sequence POPTHM used to calculate per capita sequence. Supply: BEA , BLS through FRED, and creator’s calculations.
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