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From the retail gross sales launch, nominal retail gross sales in October fixed vs. +0.1% m/m Bloomberg consensus. In actual phrases, they’re down.
Determine 1: Actual retail gross sales deflated by chained CPI (blue), by CPI-all (tan), actual consumption (inexperienced), all in logs 2025M01=0 . October consumption is predicted utilizing a primary variations regression of consumption on actual retail gross sales, 2025M01-25M09. Supply: Census, BEA, BLS, and creator’s calculations.
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