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Why is Neumeyer calling for a US$100 silver worth?

Neumeyer believes silver might hit US$100 attributable to quite a lot of components, together with its constant deficit, its industrial demand and the way undervalued it’s in comparison with gold.

There’s a major distance for silver to go earlier than it reaches the success Neumeyer has boldly predicted. To ensure that the steel to leap to the US$100 mark, its worth must improve from its present worth by round 175 p.c.

Neumeyer has beforehand stated he expects a triple-digit silver worth partly as a result of he believed the market cycle could possibly be in comparison with the 12 months 2000, when traders had been crusing excessive on the dot-com bubble and the mining sector was down. He thinks it’s solely a matter of time earlier than the market corrects, prefer it did in 2001 and 2002, and commodities see a giant rebound in pricing. It was throughout 2000 that Neumeyer himself invested closely in mining shares and got here out on prime.

“I’ve been calling for triple-digit silver for just a few years now, and I’m extra enthused now,” Neumeyer stated at an occasion in January 2020, noting that there are a number of components behind his reasoning. “However I’m cautiously enthused as a result of, you understand, I assumed it will have occurred ahead of it at the moment is going on.”

In an August 2022 with Wall Avenue Silver, he reiterated his assist for triple-digit silver and stated he isn’t alone on this optimistic view — in truth, he is been surpassed in that optimism. “I truly noticed somebody the opposite day name for US$500 silver,” he stated. “I am not fairly certain I am on the stage. Give me US$50 first and we’ll see what occurs after that.”

One other issue driving Neumeyer’s place is his perception that the silver market is in a deficit. In a Might 2021 interview, when offered with supply-side information from the Silver Institute indicating the most important surplus in silver market historical past, Neumeyer was blunt in his skepticism. “I believe these numbers are made up,” he stated. “I wouldn’t belief them in any respect.”

He identified that subtracting internet investments in silver exchange-traded merchandise leaves the market in a deficit, and in addition questioned the methodology behind the institute’s recycling information given that almost all recycled silver steel comes from privately owned smelters and refineries that usually don’t make these figures public.

“I am guessing the mining sector produced one thing within the order of 800, possibly 825 million ounces in 2022,” Neumeyer stated when giving a This fall 2022 overview for his firm. “Consumption numbers seem like they’re someplace between 1.2 and 1.4 billion ounces. That is attributable to all the nice applied sciences, all of the newfangled devices that we’re consuming. Electrical autos, photo voltaic panels, windmills, you title it. All these applied sciences require silver … that is a reasonably large (provide) deficit.”

In a December 2023 interview with Kitco, Neumeyer confused that silver is greater than only a poor man’s gold and he spoke to silver’s essential function in electrical autos and photo voltaic cells. In step with this view on silver, First Majestic is a member of a consortium of silver producers that in January 2024 despatched a letter to the Canadian authorities urging that silver be acknowledged as a important mineral. Silver’s inclusion on the listing would permit silver producers to speed up the event of strategic tasks with monetary and administrative help from the federal government.

On this 2024 PDAC interview, Neumeyer as soon as once more highlighted this sizable imbalance within the silver’s supply-demand image. “We’re six years into this deficit. The deficit in 2024 appears to be like prefer it’s gonna be greater than 2023, and why is that? As a result of miners aren’t producing sufficient silver for the wants of the human race,” he stated.

Extra controversially, Neumeyer is of the opinion that the white steel will ultimately develop into uncoupled from its sister steel gold, and must be seen as a strategic steel attributable to its necessity in lots of on a regular basis home equipment, from computer systems to electronics, in addition to the applied sciences talked about above. He has additionally acknowledged that silver manufacturing has gone down in recent times, that means that opposite to common perception, he believes the steel is definitely a uncommon commodity.

Neumeyer’s March 2023 triple-digit silver name was a long-term name, and he defined that whereas he believed gold would break US$3,000 that 12 months, he thought silver will solely attain US$30. Nevertheless, as soon as the gold-silver ratio is that unbalanced, he believes that silver will start to take off, and it will simply want a catalyst.

“It could possibly be Elon Musk taking a place within the silver house,” Neumeyer stated. “There’s going to be a catalyst at a while, and headlines within the Wall Avenue Journal would possibly speak in regards to the silver provide deficit … I do not know what the catalyst will probably be, however traders and establishments will get up to the basics of the steel, and that is when it’ll begin to transfer.”

In an August 2023 interview with SilverNews, Neumeyer stated banks are holding the silver market down. He pointed to the paper marketplace for the steel, which he stated the banks have capped at US$30 even in occasions of excessive shopping for.

“If you wish to go and purchase 100 billion ounces of (paper) silver, you may not even transfer the worth, as a result of some financial institution simply writes you a contract that claims (you personal that),” he famous, saying banks are keen to get brief as a result of as soon as shopping for stops, they push the worth all the way down to get the traders out of the market and purchase the silver again. “… If the miners began pulling their steel out of the present system, then swiftly the banks would not know if they will get the steel or not, so they would not be taking the identical dangers they’re taking at the moment within the paper markets.”

The month after the interview, his firm First Majestic launched its personal minting facility, named First Mint.

In 2024, gold skilled a resurgence in investor consideration because the potential for Fed price cuts got here into view. In an interview with Cambone at PDAC 2024, Neumeyer countered that notion, stating, “There’s a rush into gold due to the de-dollarization of the world. It has nothing to do with the rates of interest.”

In an April 2025 Cash Metals podcast, Neumeyer reiterated his perception that silver is in an excessive provide deficit and that ultimately silver costs must rise in an effort to incentivize silver miners to dig up extra of the steel.

“You want triple digit silver simply to encourage the mining firms to start out investing once more as a result of the mining firms aren’t going to make the funding as a result of there’s simply a lot threat in it,” he stated.

A number of market analysts have raised issues about this silver provide deficit.

In a March Investing Information Community (INN) interview, Dana Samuelson, president of American Gold Alternate, defined that silver is especially weak to a provide shock as London Bullion Market Affiliation’s bodily silver provides have decreased by 30 to 40 p.c, whereas gold has solely misplaced 3 to 4 p.c.

Furthermore, in April on the Sprott Silver Convention, Maria Smirnova, senior portfolio supervisor and chief funding officer at Sprott Asset Administration, highlighted the deficit as nicely.

Smirnova defined that silver has been in a provide deficit of 150 million ounces to 200 million ounces yearly (or 10 p.c to twenty p.c of whole provide), whereas manufacturing has been stagnant or declining over the previous decade. She emphasised that above-ground inventories have declined by practically 500 million ounces in recent times.

What components have an effect on the silver worth?

To be able to glean a greater understanding of the valuable steel’s possibilities of buying and selling across the US$100 vary, it’s essential to look at the weather that would push it to that stage or pull it additional away.

The energy of the US greenback and US Federal Reserve rate of interest adjustments are components that may proceed to have an effect on the valuable steel, as are geopolitical points and provide and demand dynamics.

Though Neumeyer believes that the ties that bind silver to gold should be damaged, the fact is that many of the similar components that form the worth of gold additionally transfer silver.

For that motive, it’s useful to take a look at gold worth drivers when attempting to grasp silver’s worth motion. Silver is, after all, the extra unstable of the 2 treasured metals, however nonetheless it typically trades in relative tandem with gold.

First, it is helpful to grasp that increased charges are typically unfavorable for gold and silver, whereas decrease charges are typically optimistic. That is as a result of when charges are increased, funding demand shifts to merchandise that may accrue curiosity.

When the COVID-19 pandemic hit, the Fed lower charges all the way down to zero from 1 to 1.25 p.c. Nevertheless, rising inflation led the Fed and different central banks to hike charges, which negatively impacted gold and silver. In February 2023, the Fed raised charges by simply 25 foundation factors, the smallest hike since March 2022, as Chair Jerome Powell stated the method of disinflation has begun. The Fed continued these small price hikes over the following 12 months with the final in July 2023.

The Fed’s price strikes are at the moment taking part in a key function in pumping up silver costs. In early July 2024, as analysts factored within the rising potential for rate of interest cuts within the the rest of 2024, silver costs had been as soon as once more testing Might’s practically 12 12 months excessive, and so they topped US$31 in September within the days main as much as the anticipated first price lower.

Heading into September of this 12 months, the silver worth is testing 14 12 months highs as market watchers expect the primary price cuts on the a part of the Fed because it paused its rate of interest strikes in November 2024.

Whereas central financial institution actions are essential for gold, and by extension silver, one other key worth driver currently has been geopolitical uncertainty. The previous few years have been full of main geopolitical occasions corresponding to tensions between the US and different international locations corresponding to North Korea, China and Iran. The large financial impression of the COVID-19 pandemic, the banking disaster in early 2023, Russia’s ongoing battle with Ukraine, and rising tensions within the Center East led to by the Israel-Hamas battle have been sources of concern for traders.

Trump’s tariffs have additionally rattled inventory markets and ratcheted up the extent of financial uncertainty pervading the panorama in 2025. This has proved worth optimistic for gold, bringing silver alongside for the experience.

Nevertheless, silver’s industrial facet cannot be ignored. Within the present surroundings, the commercial case of silver is weakening within the brief time period; however long run nonetheless holds some prospects for bigger features.

Larger industrial demand from rising sectors attributable to components just like the transition to renewable power and the emergence of AI know-how will probably be extremely supportive for the steel over the following few years. Photo voltaic panels are an particularly thrilling sector as producers have discovered growing the silver content material will increase power effectivity.

“Even within the US, the coverage actually is ‘all the above’ — all types of power. So I’m not involved about photo voltaic cells diminishing. May they go flat? Yeah, that’s superb. Flat at 300 million ounces? That’s nice demand for silver,” stated former Hecla Mining (NYSE:HL) CEO Phil Baker throughout a Might webinar hosted by Simon Catt of Arlington Group.

“(Prime Minister Narendra) Modi made a coverage resolution a 12 months in the past to develop the photo voltaic business in India. So in India, solely about 10 p.c of their demand for silver is used for industrial functions. In China, it’s 90 p.c, and so what you’re going to have in India is you’re going to see their photo voltaic panel development skyrocket,” he added.

May silver hit US$100 per ounce?

Whereas we won’t know if we’ll attain a $100 per ounce silver worth within the close to future, there may be assist for Neumeyer’s perception that the steel is undervalued and that “splendid circumstances are current for silver costs to rise.”

Many are on board with Neumeyer in the concept that silver’s prospects are shiny, together with Gary Savage, president of the Sensible Cash Tracker Publication, who acknowledged throughout a Might interview with INN that “US$100 goes to be a chunk of cake” for silver. He additionally acknowledged he believes “US$500 is probably going someday … possibly in three or 4 years.”

So, if the silver worth does rise additional, can it go that prime?

Let’s take a look at silver’s latest historical past. The best worth for silver was just below US$50 within the Seventies, and it got here near that stage once more in 2011. The commodity’s worth uptick got here on the again of very robust silver funding demand. Whereas it has but to succeed in these ranges once more, the silver worth has elevated considerably in recent times.

After spending the latter half of the 2010s within the teenagers, the 2020s have seen silver largely maintain above US$20.

In August 2020, the worth of silver reached practically US$28.50 earlier than pulling again once more, and moved again up close to these heights in February 2021. The worth of silver noticed a 2022 excessive level of US$26.46 in February, and handed US$26 once more in each Might and November 2023. Silver rallied within the later a part of the primary quarter of 2024, and by April 12 was as soon as once more flirting with the US$30 mark because it reached an 11 12 months excessive of US$29.26. Regardless of pulling again to the US$26 stage quickly after, by October 22 the worth of silver had a pleasant run within the lead as much as the election, rising as much as US$34.80.

Nevertheless, a stronger greenback and indicators that the Fed may not be so fast to chop rates of interest as deeply as anticipated had been seen as worth unfavorable for silver. It was in a downward slide for a lot of the rest of the 12 months. For a lot of the primary half of 2025, silver has adopted gold increased on components together with persistent inflationary pressures introduced on by Trump’s aggressive tariff bulletins and the continuing geopolitical dangers within the Center East.

On September 3, 2025, the worth of silver had reached a 14 12 months excessive of US$41 mark, up virtually 40 p.c for the reason that starting of the 12 months.

What do different specialists take into consideration US$100 silver?

As silver’s trajectory continues upwards, some silver market specialists are agreeing with Neumeyer’s triple-digit silver speculation, or no less than that the worth of silver nonetheless has additional room to develop.

Willem Middelkoop of Commodity Discovery Fund advised INN on the sidelines of PDAC that he believes silver might simply attain US$100 someday over the following decade, advising traders to incorporate bodily silver of their portfolio.

“In the future the market will run, and should you’re not in, you will not win it,” Middelkoop stated.

Substack publication author John Rubino sees the silver provide deficit as not solely a difficulty for the commercial sector, however for the COMEX futures markets as nicely, which might spark a significant rally within the silver worth.

“There must be upward worth strain on silver, because the deficit continues and possibly turns right into a scarcity,” Rubino advised INN in a Might interview. “We’re utilizing up the beforehand present silver, and which means there’s simply much less of it round for the COMEX to fulfill futures contracts who present up and need to flip their contract into silver.”

Rubino defined that there’s actual hazard in an trade defaulting on delivering bodily steel to futures contract merchants and needing to pay money as an alternative. This situation is more likely to set off panic shopping for.

He added that he could be shocked if silver didn’t attain US$100 an oz “someplace alongside the best way, and it is attainable that a lot increased costs might occur when the panic shopping for begins.”

Frank Holmes of US International Traders (NASDAQ:GROW) advised INN in a June interview that he thinks the worth of silver might “simply go to US$100” provided that silver provide has been working a deficit for a few years now at a time when the world is transitioning towards elevated electrification. Specifically, he cited photo voltaic sector demand.

INN additionally spoke with Mani Alkhafaji, First Majestic’s vice chairman of company of growth and investor relations, to get his ideas on silver. In a July interview on the Rule Symposium, he shared why he believes there’s a statistical argument for silver to succeed in US$70 sooner or later sooner or later.

“It is exhausting to not reference Keith, our CEO, and triple digit involves thoughts fairly steadily now — extra individuals are speaking about it,” Alkhafaji defined on the time. He elaborated, “I’m a believer of economics, you take a look at the mining ratio and that’s sitting at 7:1, but the worth ratio is sitting at 90:1 proper now. We simply talked about that gold is snug at US$3,000, in order that tells us that silver must play catch as much as collapse that ratio.”