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That’s a plea from an X put up a yr in the past. He offered numerous calculations (that are exhausting to copy, as a result of he does humorous issues like mixing CES numbers and CPS numbers), however certainly BLS calculates such a sequence: the U6 unemployment charge, which opposite to his assertion, economists are conscious of. I’ll observe up on citing this sequence, even when Dr. Antoni has not up to now eight months.
Determine 1: Whole Unemployed, Plus All Individuals Marginally Hooked up to the Labor Pressure, Plus Whole Employed Half Time for Financial Causes, as a % of the Civilian Labor Pressure Plus All Individuals Marginally Hooked up to the Labor Pressure (U-6), % s.a. (tan). Supply: BLS by way of FRED.
I don’t imagine Dr. Antoni has talked about this various sequence up to now eight months.
For context, right here’re U6 vs U3 (“official”) unemployment charges.
Determine 2: Whole Unemployed, Plus All Individuals Marginally Hooked up to the Labor Pressure, Plus Whole Employed Half Time for Financial Causes, as a % of the Civilian Labor Pressure Plus All Individuals Marginally Hooked up to the Labor Pressure (U-6), (tan), unemployment charge (U-3), each in %, s.a. Supply: BLS by way of FRED.
Possibly Dr. Antoni has eschewed specializing in this sequence as a result of U6 has risen 0.3 (0.6) ppts whereas U3 has risen solely 0.1 (0.3) bps over the previous yr (since January 2025).
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