Inventory Market Outlook getting into the Week of August seventeenth = Uptrend
ANALYSIS
The inventory market outlook continues to point out an uptrend for U.S. equities, although institutional promoting elevated once more.
The S&P500 ( $SPX ) rose 0.9%. The index sits ~4% above the 50-day transferring common and ~9% above the 200-day transferring common.
The market added 2 extra distribution days final week, bringing the full to six (which is elevated) and dropping the Institutional Exercise sign to impartial.
SPX Value & Quantity Chart for Aug 17 2025
PERFORMANCE COMPARISONS
Well being care ( $XLV ) led sectors greater, whereas Utilities and Shopper Staples ( $XLU & $XLP ) underperformed. Supplies and Healthcare ( $XLB & $XLV ) regained bullish bias and Power ( $XLE ) rose to impartial.
S&P Sector Efficiency from Week 33 of 2025
Small cap worth ( $IWN ) outperformed the opposite types, whereas Momentum and Low Beta ( $MTUM & $SPLV ) got here away with small losses.
Sector Model Efficiency from Week 33 of 2025
Regardless of a uneven week, U.S. equities led belongings greater, and Gold ( $GLD ) underperformed. Gold can also be testing bias ranges, whereas the U.S. greenback fell again to bearish bias.
Asset Class Efficiency from Week 33 2025
COMMENTARY
Final week’s inflation knowledge stunned too the upside; not good for these with hopes of enormous rate of interest cuts.
Headline CPI was the “greatest” studying, displaying now change in yr over yr readings. Core CPI elevated in July, and that’s on prime of an upward revision to June knowledge ( from 2.8% to 2.9% ).
| CPI (y/y) | Precise | Prior |
Anticipated |
| Headline | +2.7% | +2.7% | +2.7% |
| Core | +3.1% | +2.9%* | +3.0% |
Headline and Core PPI confirmed sharper will increase in inflation readings. The headline knowledge elevated to three.3%, on prime of an upward revision to June knowledge ( from 2.3% to 2.4% ). Core was the worst, leaping extra 1%.
| PPI (y/y) | Precise | Prior |
Anticipated |
| Headline | +3.3% | +2.4%* | +2.5% |
| Core | +3.7% | +2.6% | +2.9% |
Retail gross sales confirmed a rise of three.9% yr over yr, down from June;s 4.4%.
And eventually, the College of Michigan shopper sentiment survey dropped to 58.6, effectively under market expectations of 62, as a result of inflation issues and better costs for sturdy items ( e.g. furnishings, home equipment, and so on. ).
Knowledge releases this week relate to housing, although all eyes and ears might be on Jackson Gap, Wyoming, for the U.S. Federal Reserve’s annual symposium. Particularly, speaking heads will attempt to assess any modifications within the “tone” of Chair Powell’s speech on Friday.
The rise in institutional promoting exercise ( famous above ) coincides with different conventional technical measures displaying an overbought market with bearish divergences creating (e.g. MACD, RSI, and so on.). Whereas it’s not time to panic, it’s time to harvest a few of these summer season beneficial properties.
Asset class and sector bias has been unstable as of late, which aligns with the historic pattern for August. Not fairly outright rotation, however there was undoubtedly some circulate shifts behind the scenes. With seasonally weak September proper across the nook, check out these allocations and ensure they nonetheless make sense. Contemplate including to positions which are nonetheless bullish bias, however oversold.
Finest to Your Week!
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