Munis have been regular to firmer in spots forward of a strong calendar that boasts 4 billion-dollar-plus offers. U.S. Treasuries have been weaker and equities ended up.
The 2-year muni-UST ratio Friday was at 68%, the five-year at 65%, the 10-year at 69% and the 30-year at 90%, based on Municipal Market Information’s 3 p.m. EDT learn. ICE Information Companies had the two-year at 68%, the five-year at 66%, the 10-year at 70% and the 30-year at 89% at a 4 p.m. learn.
Macro market circumstances “assist a continuation, and presumably an acceleration of the muni bond market rally,” mentioned BofA strategists, who, together with Barclays strategists, inspired buyers so as to add to their muni portfolios.
Issuance is at $29.07 billion month-to-date, based on LSEG, and the Bond Purchaser 30-day seen provide sits at $20.6 billion, as of Thursday.
“The market appeared to don’t have any downside absorbing the big calendar and managed to outperform Treasuries and corporates currently,” BofA strategists mentioned.
Regardless of the heavy provide, the market “feels good,” supported by decrease charges and strong inflows, Barclays strategists led by Mikhail Foux mentioned.
“Lengthy period and decrease coupon bonds proceed to drive efficiency,” they mentioned.
BofA’s analysts advised buyers “accumulate bonds extra proactively whereas muni yields are nonetheless at cheap ranges.” Foux and different Barclays strategists had an identical take.
“Begrudgingly, we’re getting extra inclined to start out including once more,” they wrote, “because the long-awaited pullback may not really materialize.”
BofA’s strategists, like many available in the market, count on the Federal Reserve to chop charges once more at its October assembly.
Based mostly on current feedback from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, BofA predicts the Fed will finish qualitative tightening in December and begin shopping for $15 billion of Treasury bonds per 30 days in March. The latter could be the primary time the Fed began shopping for treasuries since September 2019.
“If the historic sample repeats, we should always count on a robust market rally from right here into March 2026, after which a stabilization for some months thereafter,” BofA’s strategists wrote, though they famous the market is experiencing downward stress from labor market deterioration and the federal shutdown, and volatility from U.S.-China commerce tensions.
New-issue calendar
The brand new-issue calendar is at $15.637 billion, with $13.676 negotiated offers on faucet and $1.961 billion of aggressive ones.
CPS Vitality leads the negotiated calendar with $2.237 billion coming to market throughout three offers, adopted by the Texas Transportation Fee with $1.772 billion of normal obligation mobility fund refunding bonds.
The aggressive calendar is led by the Triborough Bridge and Tunnel Authority with $230 million of second subordinate income bond anticipation notes.
AAA scales
MMD’s scale was bumped as much as three foundation factors: 2.45% (unch) in 2026 and a couple of.35% (unch) in 2027. The five-year was 2.33% (-1), the 10-year was 2.76% (-2) and the 30-year was 4.13% (unch) at 3 p.m.
The ICE AAA yield curve was bumped as much as two foundation factors: 2.42% (-2) in 2026 and a couple of.33% (unch) in 2027. The five-year was at 2.34% (unch), the 10-year was at 2.78% (-1) and the 30-year was at 4.09% (-1) at 4 p.m.
The S&P World Market Intelligence municipal curve was bumped out lengthy: The one-year was at 2.44% (unch) in 2025 and a couple of.36% (unch) in 2026. The five-year was at 2.33% (unch), the 10-year was at 2.77% (-2) and the 30-year yield was at 4.11% (-1) at 3 p.m.
Bloomberg BVAL was bumped as much as a foundation level: 2.39% (unch) in 2025 and a couple of.35% (unch) in 2026. The five-year at 2.24% (-1), the 10-year at 2.76% (-1) and the 30-year at 4.08% (-1) at 4 p.m.
Treasuries have been weaker.
The 2-year UST was yielding 3.463% (+4), the three-year was at 3.468% (+4), the five-year at 3.589% (+4), the 10-year at 4.006% (+3), the 20-year at 4.573% (+2) and the 30-year at 4.601% (+2) close to the shut.
Main to come back
The Texas Transportation Fee (Aaa//AAA/) is about to cost Tuesday $1.772 billion of normal obligation mobility fund refunding bonds. Loop Capital Markets.
CPS Vitality (Aa2/AA-/AA-/) is about to cost Tuesday $1.398 billion of taxable income refunding bonds, New Collection 2025A. BofA Securities.
CPS Vitality (Aa3/A+/AA-/) can be set to cost Wednesday $514.83 million of variable fee junior lien income and refunding bonds, Collection 2025A. Truist.
Moreover, CPS Vitality (Aa2/AA-/AA-/) is about to cost Tuesday $324.13 million of income refunding bonds, New Collection 2025B. BofA Securities.
The New Jersey Transportation Belief Fund Authority (A1/A/A/A/) is about to cost Wednesday $1.5 billion of transportation program bonds, Collection 2025 AA. J.P. Morgan.
The New York Metropolis Transitional Finance Authority (Aa1/AAA/AAA/) is about to cost Wednesday $1.5 billion of future tax secured tax-exempt subordinate bonds, Fiscal 2026 Collection B. Siebert Williams Shank.
The Kentucky State Property and Buildings Fee (Aa3//AA-/) is about to cost Wednesday $940.27 million of Undertaking No. 133 income bonds, consisting of $775 million of Collection A bonds and $165.27 million of Collection B refunding bonds. BofA Securities.
The California State Public Works Board (Aa3/A+/AA-/) is about to cost Tuesday a $642.505 million deal, consisting of $621.195 million of Collection 2025C and $21.31 million of Collection 2025D. J.P. Morgan.
The Wayne County Airport Authority (A1/A+//AA/) is about to cost Tuesday $465.58 million of Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport income refunding bonds, consisting of $28.965 million of Collection D, $194.405 million of Collection E, $7.125 million of Collection F, $189.91 million of Collection G and $45.175 million of Collection H. Siebert Williams Shank.
The Sacramento Metropolis Unified Faculty District, California, (/AA//) is about to cost Thursday $451.88 million of GO bonds, consisting of $262.5 million of GO 2020 Election (Measure H) bonds, Collection C; $143 million of GO 2024 Election (Measure D) bonds, Collection A; $9.855 million of 2025 GO refunding bonds, Collection A; and $36.525 million of 2025 GO refunding bonds, Collection B. Loop Capital Markets.
The Williamsburg Financial Growth Authority, Virginia, (/A+//) is about to cost Tuesday $330 million of taxable The Colonial Williamsburg Basis Undertaking income bonds. Wells Fargo.
The Cumberland County Industrial Services and Air pollution Management Financing Authority (Aa1///) is about to cost Tuesday $250 million of Undertaking Aero strong waste disposal income bonds. Oppenheimer.
The Frisco Impartial Faculty District, Texas, (Aaa/AAA//) is about to cost Tuesday $214.4 million of PSF-insured limitless tax refunding bonds, Collection 2025B. Piper Sandler.
North Slope Borough, Alaska, (/AA//AA+/) is about to cost Wednesday $186.75 million of GOs. Jefferies.
The Oklahoma Metropolis Water Utilities Belief (Aaa/AAA//) is about to cost Thursday $185.91 million of utility system income refunding and enchancment bonds. Morgan Stanley.
The Conroe Impartial Faculty District, Texas, (Aaa/AAA//) is about to cost Wednesday $185.14 million of PSF-insured limitless tax refunding bonds. RBC Capital Markets.
The Comal Impartial Faculty District, Texas, (Aaa///) is about to cost Tuesday $184.21 million of PSF-insured limitless tax refunding bonds. Frost Financial institution.
The Missouri Joint Municipal Electrical Utility Fee (A3//A/) is about to cost Tuesday $151.37 million of Marshall Vitality Middle Undertaking energy mission income. Wells Fargo.
The Glendale Industrial Growth Authority, Arizona, (/AA-/AA/) is about to cost Thursday $150 million of Midwestern College income. Raymond James.
Metrocare Companies (Aa3///) is about to cost Wednesday $142.49 million of income bonds. Raymond James.
The Maryland Well being and Greater Instructional Services Authority (A1/AA//) is about to cost Wednesday $135.565 million of TidalHealth situation income bonds, Collection 2025C. KeyBanc.
The Village Group Growth District No. 16, Florida, is about to cost Thursday $127 million of nonrated particular evaluation income bonds. Jefferies.
The Colorado Well being Services Authority (/A-//) is about to cost Thursday $125 million of Craig Hospital Undertaking hospital income bonds, consisting of $105 million of Collection A and $20 million of Collection B. RBC Capital Markets.
The South Carolina Scholar Mortgage Corp. (/AA//) is about to cost Thursday $112.1 million of taxable senior pupil mortgage income bonds, Collection 2025A. RBC Capital Markets.
Oregon (Aa1/AA+/AA+/) is about to cost Thursday $109.44 million of GOs, Collection 2025K. Morgan Stanley.
The IPS Multi-Faculty Constructing Corp., Indiana, (/AA+//) is about to cost Wednesday $107.75 million of social advert valorem property tax first mortgage bonds. Stifel.
Pensacola, Florida, (/A+/A+/A+/) is about to cost Tuesday $104.625 million of AMT airport income bonds. BofA Securities.
The Mission Financial Growth Corp. (A1///) is about to cost Wednesday $100 million of Vinton Metal LLC Undertaking strong waste disposal income bonds. Jefferies.
Aggressive
The Triborough Bridge and Tunnel Authority, New York, is about to promote $230 million of second subordinate income bond anticipation notes, Collection 2025A, at 10:45 a.m. Tuesday.
Suffolk County, New York, (/AA-/AA-/) is about to promote $188.735 million of public enchancment serial bonds, Collection 2025A, at 11 a.m. Thursday.
Fayetteville, North Carolina, (Aa2/AA/AA/) is about to promote $156.135 million of public works fee income bonds, at 11 a.m. Tuesday.
Henrico County, Virginia, (///AAA/) is about to promote $125 million of water and sewer system income bonds, Collection 2025D, at 10:30 a.m. Thursday.
Lawrence, Kansas, is about to promote $121.57 million of water and sewage system enchancment and refunding income bonds at midday Thursday.
The Parkway C-2 Faculty District, Missouri, is about to promote $100 million of GOs at 11:30 a.m. Monday.
