Municipals had been regular Monday as U.S. Treasury yields rose barely and equities ended up.
The 2-year muni-UST ratio Monday was at 56%, the five-year at 58%, the 10-year at 69% and the 30-year at 88%, in response to Municipal Market Information’s 3 p.m. ET learn. ICE Information Companies had the two-year at 57%, the five-year at 58%, the 10-year at 69% and the 30-year at 89% at a 4 p.m. learn.
The muni market “kicked off [last] week on stable footing” amid a “mild major calendar, mid-month reinvestment money hitting accounts and treasuries persevering with to rally,” Birch Creek strategists stated.
“On a month-to-date foundation, AAA munis have outperformed Treasuries throughout the whole curve. … This outperformance could be attributable to an enchancment in market technicals,” stated Daryl Clements, a portfolio supervisor at AllianceBernstein.
This outperformance has “pushed short-maturity bonds to costly valuations relative to quick Treasuries,” he stated.
In the meantime, the lengthy finish “continues to stay fairly engaging and gives vital alternative if yields proceed to fall,” Clements stated.
Provide picked up this week after taking a “breather” final week, he famous.
This week’s calendar is estimated at $14.78 billion, led by $2.3 billion of basic obligation bonds from California, consisting of $700 million of assorted function GOs and $1.6 billion of assorted function refunding GOs.
Muni mutual funds noticed inflows of $1.045 billion final week. Funding-grade mutual funds noticed inflows of $620 million, whereas high-yield mutual funds noticed inflows of $425 million, in response to LSEG Lipper.
Bids wanteds had been up 15% however “had been once more led by tenors inside one yr] and short-call paper as accounts seemed to increase period,” Birch Creek strategists stated.
Earlier than final week’s
The outperformance induced the relative worth argument to wane, and the muni market gave again a few of its positive aspects within the again half of the week, with the benchmark MMD curve decrease by 1-2bps throughout all tenors besides the very entrance finish, they stated.
With muni-UST ratios closing Friday at 56% to 58% up entrance, 70% within the 10-year and 89% within the 30 yr, “we don’t see many catalysts that might result in additional outperformance and suspect munis will extra intently mirror Treasury fluctuations over the approaching weeks,” Birch Creek strategists stated.
AAA scales
MMD’s scale was unchanged: The one-year was at 2.12% and a pair of.02% in two years. The five-year was at 2.15%, the 10-year at 2.88% and the 30-year at 4.22% at 3 p.m.
The ICE AAA yield curve was little modified: 2.14% (unch) in 2026 and a pair of.05% (-1) in 2027. The five-year was at 2.14% (unch), the 10-year was at 2.85% (unch) and the 30-year was at 4.23% (unch) at 4 p.m.
The S&P International Market Intelligence municipal curve was unchanged: The one-year was at 2.11% in 2025 and a pair of.01% in 2026. The five-year was at 2.16%, the 10-year was at 2.88% and the 30-year yield was at 4.22% at 3 p.m.
Bloomberg BVAL was unchanged: 2.04% in 2025 and a pair of.01% in 2026. The five-year at 2.10%, the 10-year at 2.83% and the 30-year at 4.20% at 4 p.m.
Treasuries noticed small losses.
The 2-year UST was yielding 3.606% (+3), the three-year was at 3.585% (+3), the five-year at 3.701% (+2), the 10-year at 4.148% (+2), the 20-year at 4.732% (+2) and the 30-year at 4.765% (+2) on the shut.
Main to come back
California (Aa2/AA-/AA//) is ready to cost Thursday $2.3 billion of GOs, consisting of $700 million of assorted function GOs and $1.6 billion of assorted function refunding GOs. Wells Fargo.
The Texas Water Improvement Board (/AAA/AAA/) is ready to cost Wednesday $1.871 billion of state water implementation income fund for Texas income bonds (Grasp Belief). BofA Securities.
Connecticut (Aa2/AA-/AA/AA+) is ready to cost Wednesday $1.815 billion of GOs, consisting of $300 million of taxable Sequence B bonds, $800 million of Sequence C bonds and $715 million of Sequence 2025 refunding bonds. Morgan Stanley.
Texas (/AAA/AAA/) is ready to cost Thursday $761.98 million of GO water monetary help bonds (State Water Plan), with $444.725 million of Sequence 2025E bonds and $317.245 million of taxable Sequence 2025F bonds. BofA Securities.
The San Diego Public Services Financing Authority (/AA-/AA/) is ready to cost Tuesday $625.87 million of lease income and lease income refunding bonds (capital enchancment and refunding tasks), Sequence 2025A. Jefferies.
The Michigan State Housing Improvement Authority (Aa2/AA+//) is ready to cost Thursday $547.5 million of single-family mortgage income bonds, consisting of $412.105 million of non-AMT bonds, Sequence 2025C, and $135.395 million of taxables, Sequence 2025D. RBC Capital Markets.
The Washington Well being Care Services Authority (/A/A/) is ready to cost Tuesday $400 million of income bonds (Windfall St. Joseph Well being), consisting of $200 million of fixed-rate Sequence 202B-1 bonds and $200 million of term-rate Sequence 202B-2 bonds. J.P. Morgan.
San Antonio, Texas, (Aa1/AA+/AA/) is ready to cost Tuesday $297.87 million of water system junior lien income refunding bonds, Sequence 2025C. BofA Securities.
The Missouri Well being and Instructional Services Authority (A2//A/) is ready to cost Tuesday $253.545 million of well being services income refunding bonds (CoxHealth), consisting of $135.88 million of Sequence 2025A and $117.665 million of Sequence 2025B. RBC Capital Markets.
The Public Hospital District No. 4, Washington, is ready to cost Wednesday $174.13 million of nonrated hospital income refunding bonds (Snoqualmie Valley Well being), Sequence 2025A. Piper Sandler.
Quincy, Massachusetts, is ready to cost Tuesday $170.222 million of GO bond anticipation notes. Ramirez.
The State Heart Group School District, California, (Aa1/AA+//) is ready to cost Tuesday $137.28 million of GOs, consisting of $105 million of Election of 2016 GOs, Sequence 2025D, and $32.28 million 2025 GO refunding bonds. RBC Capital Markets.
The New York Metropolis Housing Improvement Corp. (Aa2/AA+//) is ready to cost Thursday $121.46 million of non-AMT sustainable growth multi-family housing income bonds, Sequence 2025F. J.P. Morgan.
The Northshore College District No. 417, Washington, (Aaa///) is ready to cost Tuesday $117.56 million of limitless tax refunding GOs. Piper Sandler.
The Valparaiso twenty first Century College Constructing Corp. (/AA+//) is ready to cost Tuesday $105.415 million of Indiana State Support Intercept Program-insured limitless advert valorem property tax first mortgage refunding bonds. Stifel.
Aggressive:
Minnesota (Aaa/AAA/AAA/) is ready to promote $294.915 million of state trunk freeway GOs, Sequence 2025B, at 10:15 a.m. Jap Tuesday; $275.215 million of state varied function GOs, Sequence 2025A, Bidding Group 1, at 10:45 a.m. Tuesday; $275.2 million of state varied function GOs, Sequence 2025A, Bidding Group 2, at 11:15 a.m. Tuesday; $236.195 million of state varied function refunding GOs, Sequence 2025D, at 11:45 a.m. Tuesday; $158.69 million of state trunk freeway refunding GOs, Sequence 2025E, at 12:15 p.m. Tuesday; and $25.6 million of taxable varied function bond GOs, Sequence 2025C, at 12:45 p.m. Tuesday.
The North Texas Municipal Water District (Aa2/AAA//) is ready to promote $286.84 million of regional wastewater system income refunding and enchancment bonds at 11:30 a.m. Thursday.
The North Texas Municipal Water District (Aa1/AAA//) is ready to promote $152.18 million of Higher East Fork wastewater interceptor system contract income refunding and enchancment bonds at midday on Thursday.
The Pinellas County College District is ready to promote $150 million of tax anticipation notes at 11 a.m. Thursday.
The Park Hill College District, Missouri, /AA-//) is ready to promote $128 million of GOs (Missouri Direct Deposit Program) at 11 on Tuesday.
The Oldham County College District, Kentucky, (Aa3///) is ready to promote $106.415 million of GOs (Kentucky College District Enhancement Program), Sequence 2025B, at 10:30 a.m. on Tuesday.
