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Bitcoin is trusted by governments and monetary establishments. Respected traders name it “digital gold,” and a few even declare it’s higher than gold. However all these, Bitcoin remains to be dealing with numerous safety threats. These days, quite a bit has been stated in regards to the potential risk from quantum computer systems. Nevertheless, Duke College Professor Campbell Harvey revealed one other concern, specifically the relative cheapness of a 51% assault on the Bitcoin community.
Abstract
- If profitable, a 51% assault offers attackers management over the Bitcoin blockchain (or one other proof-of-work-based blockchain). To realize success, attackers should management over 50% of the mining hashrate, which is expensive.
- Prior to now, Bitcoin Gold and Ethereum Basic went by means of profitable 51% assaults, ensuing within the theft of cash by means of double-spending. All through historical past, the Bitcoin blockchain has been secure from the 51% assaults.
- In keeping with Harvey, to dominate within the hashrate manufacturing for one week, attackers would want to spend “solely” $6 billion, which is lower than 0.5% of Bitcoin’s market capitalization. Harvey supplied a potential sensible use of such an assault.
Duke College Fuqua College of Enterprise Professor Campbell Harvey launched a paper devoted to potential threats to Bitcoin. In an summary, Harvey likens Bitcoin to gold however outlines that Bitcoin is dealing with its particular threats: quantum computer systems and, what’s extra vital, a potential 51% assault. He additionally acknowledges that Bitcoin has its benefits over gold. As an illustration, he mentions that “trendy alchemy” permits the manufacturing of extra gold, whereas Bitcoin’s provide can not exceed 21,000,000 models.
What’s a 51% assault?
As Bitcoin mining is expensive and requires particular {hardware}, miners don’t have a chance to mess with the ledger knowledge. Every node “votes” by way of computing energy (hashrate) to validate transactions in new blocks, and the vast majority of miners are voting for proper knowledge. Miners are motivated to vote for the proper knowledge as they rely on the Bitcoin blockchain’s integrity, which provides it worth.
Nevertheless, as soon as half of the entire hashrate within the system is managed by a single entity (an individual or a gaggle of plotters), it has the ability to alter the information within the Bitcoin ledger. It would enable dangerous actors to maneuver different individuals’s bitcoins, successfully stealing them.
Whereas some criticize Bitcoin for its low decentralization stage, nobody in 16 years of Bitcoin’s existence has ever managed to realize management over the Bitcoin blockchain.
Within the early days of Bitcoin, mining was accessible to any PC proprietor. Nevertheless, as mining relies on competitors the place the luckiest miner has to have a better hashrate stage than most rivals, computer systems and even GPUs and FPGAs shortly grew to become out of date for mining. In 2013, the primary ASICs (gadgets specialised for Bitcoin mining) hit the market. Quickly, Bitcoin mining became a multi-million-dollar business, requiring a lot funding and amenities crammed with buzzing ASIC gadgets. In October 2025, Bitcoin mining problem reached a brand new most.
It makes hacking Bitcoin by way of a 51% assault a tough and costly job. Because the mining problem goes up, every year the prices of a 51% assault are getting greater.
Campbell Harvey’s findings
Whereas a 51% assault is expensive, its worth is just not unthinkable. Such networks as Bitcoin Gold and Ethereum Basic suffered a number of 51% assaults after 2017. Every considered one of them resulted in a single million plus value of crypto stolen in every separate case. In August 2025, Qubic mining pool claimed it acquired over 50% of the hashing energy within the Monero community.
Professor Harvey calculated the prices and concluded that one week of domination on the Bitcoin blockchain would value “solely” $6 billion:
“{Hardware} is the biggest expenditure, about $4.6 billion at present costs. The information heart construct would require $1.34 billion and the electrical energy to run the {hardware} and preserve the info heart about $0.13 billion per week. All instructed, a one-week assault would value about $6 billion, or 0.26% of the bitcoin community’s whole worth.”
The analysis relies on the next metrics:
- Bitcoin’s annual output is 164,363 BTC
- Power utilization is 166.4TWh
- Complete value is $12 trillion
- Complete power value is $8.4 trillion
- Complete value per unit is $73,000 per 1 BTC unit
Harvey famous {that a} profitable 51% assault on Bitcoin would trigger a extreme worth drop, and hackers might nonetheless revenue from it and earn far more than $6 billion again. Harvey estimated BTC perpetual futures each day quantity at $60 billion and traditional BTC futures each day quantity at $10 billion. Harvey believes that opening a brief place on these markets earlier than a 51% assault might end in excessive income for attackers on high of returning $6 billion. Harvey provides that the motive is probably not profit-related.
Nevertheless, critics of Harvey’s warning argued that setting such an enormous mining operation would have taken years, and it wouldn’t go unnoticed. Greater than that, shorting a lot BTC within the circumstances of an ongoing 51% assault could also be onerous, because the trade will in all probability flag an operation as market manipulation and gained’t let it.
Commenting on Harvey’s analysis, Matt Prusak, president of American Bitcoin Corp., instructed Bloomberg: “My perspective is that financial feasibility kills the 51% thesis. I dwell in the true world, and I’m not involved.”
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