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The November unemployment charge got here in at 4.6% v. 4.5% Bloomberg consensus. What does the Sahm rule say about whether or not we’re in a recession or not? Nothing, as we don’t have an October studying (because of the knowledge of OMB declaring BLS staff non-essential).
However suppose we linearly interpolated September and November unemployment charges, so October is assumed to be 4.5%. Then the three month trailing common of the unemployment charge (4.5%) is 0.5 above the minimal unemployment charge (4%) over the previous 12 months.
Determine 1: Sahm indicator (blue). November remark assumes October unemployment charge is 4.5%. Supply: BLS, and creator’s calculations.
A cautionary be aware: the Sahm realtime indicator additionally breached the brink in August-September 2024. Then again, Michaillat-Saez argue for a recession since March 2024.
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