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Just below two months in the past, GDPNow’s estimate of the contribution of ultimate gross sales to personal home purchasers (sum of consumption and stuck funding) to GDP progress (q/q AR) was 2.84%, near the Survey of Skilled Forecasters’ median; now it’s 2.15%.
Determine 1: Closing gross sales to personal home purchasers (black), GDPNow nowcast (mild blue sq.), November Survey of Skilled Forecasters median (tan), 2023-24 stochastic pattern (grey), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Supply: BEA, Atlanta Fed 12/11, Philadelphia Fed, and writer’s calculations.
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