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Following up on the drop in heavy truck gross sales in August, right here’s the prediction from a easy probit of recession (NBER peak-to-trough) on present 12 month heavy truck gross sales progress:
Determine 1: Estimated likelihood of NBER recession utilizing probit on heavy truck gross sales progress (blue). Pink line at present worth of 0.28. NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: NBER, and writer’s calculations.
Discover, utilizing this mannequin and a 28% threshold yields solely on false constructive: 2016.
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