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Australia’s newest Sources and Vitality Quarterly report, launched in September 2025, highlights a modest downgrade within the nation’s export outlook amid softer commodity costs.
The federal government now expects useful resource and power export earnings to fall from a report AU$385 billion in 2024–2025 to AU$369 billion in 2025–2026 — a decline of about 5 p.c.
An additional dip to AU$354 billion is projected for 2026–2027 as world demand eases and costs normalize from current highs.Regardless of the pullback, the sources and power sector stays the spine of Australia’s commerce efficiency, accounting for roughly two-thirds of whole merchandise exports.
This means that amidst ongoing value fluctuations, the nation’s evolving mining business continues to be a major contributor to its financial progress.
Within the June 2025 quarter, Australia’s actual gross home product (GDP) rose by 0.6. to which mining value-added grew by 2.3 p.c.
Iron ore mining rose by 6.1 p.c as dangerous climate disruptions ended. The nation additionally stays the biggest iron ore producer globally.
Exploration and mining assist providers gained 2.3 p.c, oil and gasoline extraction elevated 1.2 p.c, coal mining rose by 0.8 p.c, whereas different mining fell by 0.7 p.c.
The report additionally highlighted that the sources and power sector contributes round 11.4 p.c of gross home product, which remains to be seemingly a major driver.
Direct workers within the useful resource and power sector are estimated at 300,000 folks.
Commodity costs
Gold continues to shine amongst different sources, reaching over US$3,800 an oz. in September. The report defined that costs rose resulting from expectations of US price cuts and issues about inflation and authorities funds.
It added that they are more likely to preserve climbing till 2026, then decelerate, with an opportunity they might drop.
As of October, gold noticed a brand new report excessive of US$4,360 per ounce.
Iron ore costs took a deep dip within the June 2025 quarter, however later rose within the September quarter resulting from improved metal market sentiments in China. The forecast is that iron ore costs will attain US$87 a tonne in 2025 to 2026, a greenback up from the present determine.
For copper, the common value per tonne is at US$9,800 within the September quarter resulting from lighter reciprocal commerce restrictions between China and the US.
“Costs are forecast to rise to a median of US$10,100 a tonne in 2027; a powerful, structural uplift in demand is not going to be matched by rising provide,” the outlook learn.
Aluminium costs succumbed to the results of the US tariffs early this yr, however have recovered losses as of writing. The forecast is that they may largely stay flat over the outlook interval.
Costs of lithium hydroxide have seen an nearly 20 p.c restoration over the identical interval,
rising from round US$7,550 a tonne to round US$9,000 per tonne in late August.
Uranium costs ranged between US$70 to US$75 per pound within the early a part of the September quarter. The quarterly report predicts that the worth can go up resulting from upply issues and better demand.
Nickel costs averaged US$15,276 a tonne within the first half of September 2025, buying and selling simply above five-year lows.
“Current progress in nickel provide has continued to outstrip demand progress, contributing to weaker costs and rising nickel stockpiles,” the report wrote.
Whereas zinc costs fell beneath US$2,600 in early April following the US tariff hikes, they soared to round US$2800 per tonne in late August.
The September quarterly means that zinc value is predicted to common US$2,740 a tonne in 2025, weaken barely in 2026 however then rise to common greater than US$2,750 a tonne in 2027.
“Vitality costs stay comparatively weak: gradual world financial progress and seasonal situations have slowed power use and provide has risen.”
The report cited the ceasefire in hostilities between Israel and Iran, saying that since then oil (Brent crude) costs have remained comparatively regular at US$65 to US$70 per barrel.
It added that oil costs are anticipated to see a lower for the forecast costs resulting from greater provide and the present demand for electrical autos.
Increased US output has pushed down liquified pure gasoline (LNG) costs – from about US$15 per a million British thermal models or MMbtu in early 2025 to US$11 per Mmbtu in September.
It added that LNG costs are anticipated to turn out to be extra steady as provide will increase, however famous that this won’t be noticeable till 2027.
Economic system supported by greenback energy
Past 2025, the demand for gold could keep the identical given geopolitical tensions, in keeping with the workplace of Australia’s Chief Economist.
“A deal to finish the preventing in Ukraine might contain sanctions reduction on Russian exports and result in a reorganization of commerce flows,” the report said.
Important minerals and uncommon earths are at present within the sizzling seat, with Australian exports anticipated to develop from 2025 to 2026.
Export earnings for different essential minerals resembling antimony, uncommon earths and cobalt are projected to develop to AU$5.0 billion by 2026 to 2027, with the recommencement of manganese exports from GEMCO and progress in uncommon earth exports predicted to drive most of this rise.
The current signing of a uncommon earths deal between Australia and the US might seemingly have an effect on and even add to the demand, as extra tasks and a complete of US$2 billion funding are anticipated throughout the subsequent six months.
An October 10 announcement from the Ministry of Commerce additionally added 5 new uncommon earth components — holmium, erbium, thulium, europium and ytterbium — together with key refining applied sciences to its export management checklist.
The brand new guidelines carry a world attain: any international firm producing uncommon earth supplies or magnets utilizing Chinese language-origin gear or know-how should now acquire an export license from Beijing.
Amid the geopolitical tensions, the Australian {dollars} is anticipated to stay resilient.
“The AUD is predicted to rise in opposition to the USD over the outlook interval: deeper and quicker US rate of interest declines than in Australia will enhance the relative attractiveness of AUD curiosity bearing property.”
Don’t neglect to observe us @INN_Resource for real-time information updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Gabrielle de la Cruz, maintain no direct funding curiosity in any firm talked about on this article.
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