Calculated Threat: CPI Preview

The consensus is for a 0.3% enhance in CPI, and a 0.3% enhance in core CPI.  The consensus is for CPI to be up 2.9% year-over-year (up from 2.7% in July) and core CPI to be up 3.1% YoY (unchanged from 3.1% in July).

From Goldman Sachs economists:

We count on a 0.36% enhance in core CPI costs in August (vs. 0.3% consensus) and a 3.13% enhance year-over-year.
…
We estimate a 0.37% rise in headline CPI, reflecting increased meals (+0.35%) and power (+0.6%) costs. Our forecast is in step with a 0.29% enhance in core PCE costs in August.

From BofA:

We forecast headline and core CPI rose by 0.3% m/m in July owing to rising power
costs, regular tariff-driven items inflation, and agency non-housing providers. Given our
m/m forecasts, we count on y/y headline CPI ought to rise from 2.7% to 2.9%, its highest
since final July, and Core CPI y/y ought to stay at 3.1%.

Click on on graph for bigger picture.

This graph exhibits the month-to-month change in each headline and core inflation since January 2024.

The circled space is the change for final August.   CPI was up 0.18% in August 2024, and core CPI was up 0.28%.  So, something above these readings for August will push up year-over-year inflation.