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by Calculated Threat on 11/26/2025 04:25:00 PM
From Intercontinental Change: ICE First Take a look at Mortgage Efficiency: Elevated Refinance Exercise Drives Mortgage Prepayments to three.5-Yr Excessive
Intercontinental Change, Inc. (NYSE:ICE) … oday launched the October 2025 ICE First Take a look at mortgage delinquency, foreclosures and prepayment tendencies.
“Softening mortgage charges expanded the pool of refinance candidates in October, pushing prepayments to their highest stage in three and a half years,” stated Andy Walden, Head of Mortgage and Housing Market Analysis at ICE. “This pattern was largely pushed by individuals who bought properties at elevated charges lately seizing the chance to decrease their month-to-month funds.”
“General mortgage well being stays strong, with continued enchancment in delinquency charges throughout all levels,” continued Walden. “Whereas foreclosures exercise has ticked up, ranges stay traditionally low. This uptick is pushed by an increase in FHA foreclosures together with the resumption in VA foreclosures following final yr’s moratorium.”
Key takeaways from this month’s findings embrace:
• Delinquencies improved: The nationwide delinquency charge fell by 7 foundation factors (bps) in October to three.34%. That is down 11 bps from the identical time final yr and 53 bps under the October 2019 pre-pandemic benchmark.
• Broad energy in delinquency charges: Efficiency improved throughout the board, with each early-stage (30-day) and late-stage (90+ day) delinquencies declining in the course of the month.
• Prepayments reached a multi-year excessive: The one month mortality (SMM) charge, which tracks prepayments, rose by 27 bps in October to 1.01%. This marks the best stage in 3.5 years and a rise of 16 bps from final yr when rates of interest have been at related ranges.
• Foreclosures exercise trending upward: Though October foreclosures begins slowed by 9.8% from the prior month, the general pattern continues to rise. Foreclosures stock is up by 37,000 (+19%) yr over yr, and foreclosures gross sales have elevated by 1,900 (+32%) from final yr’s ranges.
• Authorities loans driving foreclosures progress: Whereas foreclosures exercise stays muted by historic requirements, the variety of loans in energetic foreclosures hit its highest stage since early 2023, pushed by a notable rise in FHA foreclosures (+50% YoY) together with a resumption of VA exercise following final yr’s moratorium.
emphasis added
Click on on graph for bigger picture.
Here’s a desk from ICE.
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