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Economy

Calculated Threat: Q3 GDP Monitoring

EditorialBy EditorialSeptember 19, 2025No Comments1 Min Read

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by Calculated Threat on 9/19/2025 11:01:00 AM

From BofA:

Since our final weekly publication, 3Q GDP monitoring moved as much as 2.1% q/q saar from
1.7% & 2Q GDP is up two-tenths to three.4%. [September 19th comment]
emphasis added

From Goldman:

We left our Q3 GDP monitoring estimate unchanged at +2.2% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). Our Q3 home ultimate gross sales estimate stands at +1.3%. [September 17th estimate]

GDPNowAnd from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow mannequin estimate for actual GDP development (seasonally adjusted annual fee) within the third quarter of 2025 is 3.3 p.c on September 17, down from 3.4 p.c on September 16. After this morning’s housing begins launch from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of third-quarter actual residential funding development decreased from -4.6 p.c to -6.3 p.c. [September 17th estimate]

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