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Economy

Calculated Threat: Q3 GDP Monitoring: Near 4%

EditorialBy EditorialNovember 21, 2025No Comments1 Min Read

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by Calculated Threat on 11/21/2025 11:56:00 AM

From BofA:

Since our final weekly publication, 3Q GDP monitoring stays unchanged at 2.8% q/q saar. [November 14th estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman:

We boosted our Q3 GDP monitoring estimate by 0.1pp to +3.8% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). Our Q3 home closing gross sales estimate stands at +2.7%. [November 19th estimate]

GDPNowAnd from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow mannequin estimate for actual GDP development (seasonally adjusted annual price) within the third quarter of 2025 is 4.2 % on November 21, unchanged from November 19 after rounding. After latest releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Nationwide Affiliation of Realtors, a slight lower within the nowcast of third-quarter actual private consumption expenditures development was offset by a rise within the nowcast of third-quarter actual gross personal home funding development from 4.8 % to 4.9 %. [November 21st estimate]

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