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Economy

Calculated Threat: Q3 GDP Monitoring

EditorialBy EditorialSeptember 6, 2025No Comments1 Min Read

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by Calculated Threat on 9/05/2025 03:11:00 PM

From BofA:

[O]ur 3Q GDP monitoring has moved up a tenth to 1.6%. Additionally, our 2Q GDP monitoring is down a tenth to three.2% from the second estiamte of 2Q GDP by the BEA. [September 5th comment]
emphasis added

From Goldman:

We lowered our Q3 GDP monitoring estimate by 0.1pp to +1.6% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). We left our Q3 home closing gross sales estimate unchanged at +0.7%. [September 4th estimate]

And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow mannequin estimate for actual GDP development (seasonally adjusted annual fee) within the third quarter of 2025 is 3.0 p.c on September 4, unchanged from September 2 after rounding. After latest releases from the US Bureau of Financial Evaluation, the US Census Bureau, and the Institute for Provide Administration, will increase within the nowcasts of actual private consumption expenditures development and actual gross personal home funding development from 1.7 p.c and 5.3 p.c, respectively, to 2.1 p.c and 6.0 p.c, had been greater than offset by a decline within the nowcast within the contribution on internet exports to GDP development from 0.69 proportion factors to 0.28 proportion factors. [September 4th estimate]

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