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Absolute greenhouse gasoline (GHG) emissions from Canada’s oil sands elevated by lower than 1% in 2024, at the same time as manufacturing climbed by 150,000 barrels per day (bpd), in line with a brand new evaluation by S&P World Commodity Insights. The findings underscore the sector’s continued progress in bettering effectivity and lowering the carbon depth of operations.
The evaluation reveals that complete annual emissions rose by lower than 1 million metric tons of CO₂ equal (MMtCO₂e) final 12 months. Since 2019, absolute emissions have grown by about 5 MMtCO₂e—a median improve of simply 1% per 12 months—in contrast with practically 12 MMtCO₂e in the course of the previous five-year interval (2015–2019). Over the identical span, manufacturing expanded by practically 400,000 bpd, reflecting regular operational optimization throughout oil sands initiatives.
“The story of oil sands depth reductions is now properly established to the extent that it’s changing into the expectation,” mentioned Kevin Birn, Chief Canadian Oil Analyst at S&P World Commodity Insights. “Operators proceed to give attention to development by way of optimization, which drives extra barrels for related ranges of vitality and emissions.”
S&P World estimates that the common GHG depth of oil sands manufacturing fell 3% in 2024 to 57 kilograms of CO₂ equal per barrel (kgCO₂e/bbl)—a 28% discount since 2009. The agency attributed the 2024 decline to effectivity positive aspects throughout each mining and in-situ operations, though a rise in mined artificial crude oil (SCO) output modestly offset total progress.
Wanting forward, S&P World expects absolute emissions to rise at a slower charge as producers proceed decreasing GHG depth. Nonetheless, analysts cautioned that continued manufacturing development might delay an eventual peak in complete oil sands emissions. “The potential for a peak stays, however every year of stronger-than-expected manufacturing development strikes that prospect a bit additional into the longer term,” mentioned Celina Hwang, Director of Crude Oil Markets at S&P World Commodity Insights.
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