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by Calculated Danger on 9/24/2025 02:16:00 PM
From Intercontinental Trade: ICE First Take a look at Mortgage Efficiency: Delinquencies Up on Calendar Impact; Foreclosures Exercise Slowly Trending Larger
Intercontinental Trade, Inc. (NYSE:ICE) … at this time launched its August 2025 ICE First Take a look at mortgage delinquency, foreclosures and prepayment developments. The information reveals the nationwide delinquency fee rose in August, largely pushed by a calendar anomaly, whereas foreclosures exercise continued its gradual upward pattern.
“The rise within the nationwide delinquency fee for August is finest understood within the context of how the calendar can impression cost processing,” stated Andy Walden, Head of Mortgage and Housing Market Analysis at ICE. “A lot of the uptick within the nationwide delinquency fee could be attributed to delayed processing of end-of-month funds, as August closed on a Sunday this 12 months. This calendar-driven impact is according to what we noticed in prior years, so the rise must be thought of a brief adjustment slightly than a shift in underlying borrower well being.”
Key takeaways from the ICE First Look embody:
• The nationwide delinquency fee rose by 16 foundation factors (bps) in August to three.43%, up 10 bps from the identical time final 12 months, marking a return to annual will increase after momentary reprieves in June and July.
• Mortgage delinquencies sometimes face little seasonal stress from July to August, however the final day of August 2025 falling on a Sunday resulted in delayed processing and briefly greater delinquency rolls. As an illustration, August 2003, 2008, and 2014 additionally ended on a Sunday, every experiencing a delinquency rise averaging 5.3%. That is much like the 5.0% rise noticed this 12 months – suggesting that a lot of August’s delinquency rise might have been pushed by the way in which the calendar fell.
• FHA loans proceed to see the most important annual will increase, with the non-current fee (delinquencies together with foreclosures) up by 86 bps to 12.0% in August, whereas the non-current charges for VA, GSE, and portfolio-held mortgages remained successfully flat 12 months over 12 months.
• Critical delinquencies (loans 90+ days overdue however not in foreclosures) rose by 16,000 in August and are up 32,000 12 months over 12 months, whereas loans in lively foreclosures elevated by 3,000 for the month and 23,000 since final 12 months.
• Foreclosures begins rose year-over-year (+6%) for the ninth consecutive month, and foreclosures gross sales (+22.5%) are up from the identical time final 12 months for the sixth consecutive month, contributing to a 12.3% annual enhance in foreclosures stock.
• Inflows and transitions to later levels of delinquency elevated throughout the board, whereas cures to present from each early- and late-stage delinquency fell.
• August prepayment exercise slipped by 1 bp to a 0.66% single month mortality (SMM) fee, reflecting seasonal dwelling shopping for patterns and comparatively regular rates of interest in July.
emphasis added
Click on on graph for bigger picture.
Here’s a desk from ICE.
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