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by Calculated Threat on 12/16/2025 09:23:00 AM
The headline jobs quantity within the November employment report was barely above expectations, nonetheless August and September had been revised down by 33,000 – and the preliminary October report signifies 105,000 job misplaced (principally Federal Authorities jobs misplaced on account of DOGE deferred resignation program). The unemployment charge elevated to 4.6%.
The graph reveals the nominal year-over-year change in “Common Hourly Earnings” for all personal workers from the Present Employment Statistics (CES).
Wage development has trended down after peaking at 5.9% YoY in March 2022 and was at 3.5% YoY in November, down from 3.7% YoY in October.
From the BLS report:
“The variety of individuals employed half time for financial causes was 5.5 million in November, an
improve of 909,000 from September. These people would have most well-liked full-time employment however
had been working half time as a result of their hours had been lowered or they had been unable to seek out full-time
jobs.“
The variety of individuals working half time for financial causes elevated in November to five.49 million from 4.58 million in September. That is effectively above the pre-pandemic ranges and the very best ranges since mid-2021.
These employees are included within the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that elevated to eight.7% from 8.0% in September. That is down from the file excessive in April 2020 of twenty-two.9% and up from the bottom degree on file (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.6%). (This sequence began in 1994). This measure is effectively above the 7.0% degree in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).
Unemployed over 26 Weeks
This graph reveals the variety of employees unemployed for 27 weeks or extra.
In response to the BLS, there are 1.91 million employees who’ve been unemployed for greater than 26 weeks and nonetheless need a job, up from 1.81 million in September.
That is above pre-pandemic ranges.
Abstract:
The headline jobs quantity within the November employment report was barely above expectations, nonetheless August and September had been revised down by 33,000 – and the preliminary October report signifies 105,000 job misplaced (principally Federal Authorities jobs misplaced on account of DOGE deferred resignation program). The unemployment charge elevated to 4.6%.
This was a weak employment report.
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