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by Calculated Danger on 12/05/2025 10:47:00 AM
Here’s a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, each by September 2025.
CPI Shelter was up 3.6% year-over-year in September, down barely from 3.6% in August, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March 2023.
Since asking rents are principally flat year-over-year, these measures will slowly proceed to say no over the following yr as rents for current tenants proceed to extend.
The second graph reveals PCE costs, Core PCE costs and Core ex-housing during the last 3 months (annualized):
Key measures are above the Fed’s goal on a 3-month foundation.
3-month annualized change:
PCE Worth Index: 2.8%
Core PCE Costs: 2.7%
Core minus Housing: 2.6%
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