October NY world sugar #11 (SBV25) on Monday closed up +0.15 (+0.95%), and December London ICE white sugar #5 (SWZ25) closed up +1.30 (+0.28%).
Sugar costs on Monday climbed to 1.5-week highs and settled larger as greenback weak point (DXY00) spurred short-covering in sugar futures.
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Final Tuesday, NY sugar posted a 4.25-year nearest-futures low, and London sugar posted a 4-year low as they prolonged their 7-month downtrend because of prospects of considerable world sugar provides. Final Tuesday, StoneX projected a world sugar surplus of +2.8 MMT for the upcoming 2025/26 season, switching from a deficit of -4.7 MMT within the 2024/25 season.
Increased sugar output in Brazil is bearish for costs. On September 17, Unica reported that Brazil’s Heart-South sugar output within the second half of August rose by +18% y/y to three.872 MT. Additionally, the share of sugarcane crushed for sugar by Brazil’s sugar mills within the second half of August elevated to 54.20% from 48.78% the identical time final yr. Nonetheless, cumulative 2025-26 Heart-South sugar output by way of August fell -1.9% y/y to 26.758 MMT.
One other bearish issue for sugar was the latest assertion from sugar dealer Sucden that India could divert 4 MMT of sugar to make ethanol in 2025/26, which isn’t sufficient to ease the nation’s sugar surplus and should immediate India’s sugar mills to export as a lot as 4 MMT of sugar, above earlier expectations of two MMT. India is the world’s second-largest sugar producer.
On August 29, the Worldwide Sugar Group (ISO) forecast a world sugar deficit for the 2025/26 season, the sixth consecutive yr of sugar deficits. The ISO initiatives a world 2025/26 sugar deficit of -231,000 MT, bettering from a -4.88 MMT shortfall in 2024/25. The ISO additionally initiatives 2025/26 world sugar manufacturing will rise by +3.3% y/y to 180.6 MMT, and 2025/26 world sugar consumption will enhance +0.3% y/y to 180.8 MMT.
Expectations for considerable sugar provides are bearish for costs. On June 30, commodities dealer Czarnikow projected a 7.5 MMT world sugar surplus for the 2025/26 season, the most important surplus in 8 years. On Might 22, the USDA, in its biannual report, projected that world 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would enhance by +4.7% y/y to a report 189.318 MMT, with world sugar ending shares at 41.188 MMT, up 7.5% y/y.
The outlook for larger sugar exports from India is destructive for sugar costs, as considerable monsoon rains could produce a bumper sugar crop. India’s Meteorological Division reported at this time that the cumulative monsoon rain in India as of September 29 was 935.2 mm, or 8% above regular.
The outlook for larger sugar manufacturing in India is bearish for costs. On June 2, India’s Nationwide Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories projected that India’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would climb +19% y/y to 34.9 MMT, citing bigger planted cane acreage. That might comply with a -17.5% y/y decline in India’s sugar manufacturing in 2024/25 to a 5-year low of 26.2 MMT, in accordance with the Indian Sugar Mills Affiliation (ISMA).
The outlook for larger sugar manufacturing in Thailand is bearish for sugar costs. On Might 2, Thailand’s Workplace of the Cane and Sugar Board reported that Thailand’s 2024/25 sugar manufacturing rose +14% y/y to 10.00 MMT. Thailand is the world’s third-largest sugar producer and the second-largest exporter of sugar.
On August 19, Conab, Brazil’s authorities crop forecasting company, lower its Brazil 2025/26 manufacturing estimate by 3.1% to 44.5 MMT from a earlier estimate of 45.9 MMT. In July, Conab reported that 2024/25 Brazil sugar manufacturing fell by -3.4% y/y to 44.118 MMT, citing decrease sugarcane yields because of drought and extreme warmth.
The USDA, in its bi-annual report launched Might 22, projected that world 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would climb +4.7% y/y to a report 189.318 MMT and that world 2025/26 human sugar consumption would enhance +1.4% y/y to a report 177.921 MMT. The USDA additionally forecasted that 2025/26 world sugar ending shares would climb +7.5% y/y to 41.188 MMT. The USDA’s International Agricultural Service (FAS) predicted that Brazil’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would rise +2.3% y/y to a report 44.7 MMT FAS predicted that India’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would rise +25% y/y to 35.3 MMT because of favorable monsoon rains and elevated sugar acreage. FAS predicted that Thailand’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing will climb +2% y/y to 10.3 MMT.
On the date of publication, Wealthy Asplund didn’t have (both straight or not directly) positions in any of the securities talked about on this article. All data and knowledge on this article is solely for informational functions. This text was initially revealed on Barchart.com
