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Referring to Dr. Antoni’s definition of recessions utilizing quarterly information, listed below are the GDP information sequence for the US I’m conscious of.
Determine 1: Actual GDP in keeping with BEA (blue), Ramey sequence (tan), BEA annual (gentle blue), Measuring Value annual (pink), all in logs 1990Q1=0. NBER outlined peak to trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: BEA, Valerie Ramey, Measuring Value, NBER< and writer’s calculations.
As can clearly be seen, quarterly GDP information to make the assertion that the two-quarter equals recession rule solely goes again 75 12 months’s previous to Dr. Antoni’s declare.
(To be truthful, Dr. Antoni is being nominated to go BLS, not BEA.)
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