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The Pushback Towards Marco Rubio Begins in Latin America and the Caribbean

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“There will likely be no advances in negotiations with the US if Marco Rubio is a part of the staff.” Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

US-Brazil relations are apparently again on observe, not less than till President Trump’s subsequent tariff tantrum. Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva reportedly had a “excellent assembly” with Trump on the aspect strains of the forty seventh ASEAN summit in Kuala Lumpur earlier this week. Lula offered Trump with a written doc outlining arguments in opposition to the US tariff hikes on Brazil whereas additionally acknowledging that the US has the proper to impose the measures.

On the identical time, the US desperately wants a brand new provider of uncommon earth minerals, and Brazil simply so occurs to be the world’s second largest after China. In different phrases, the financial self-interest of the US authorities, navy and corporatocracy is now of higher significance than the destiny of Trump’s not too long ago imprisoned far-right populist buddy, Jair Bolsonaro — or for that matter, Lula’s current pronouncements in favour of de-dollarisation.

However for any negotiations between Brazil and the US to have any likelihood of prospering, Lula has referred to as for the elimination of 1 main stumbling block: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio:

“I’m a president with loads of expertise. Though it could not appear so, I do have loads of expertise… If you would like a deal to succeed however put somebody with dangerous will on the negotiating desk, there will likely be no deal.

Whereas Lula doesn’t name out Rubio by title within the above clip, he apparently did so at one other second within the press convention speech. In response to Infobae, he stated:

There will likely be no advances in negotiations with the US if Marco Rubio is a part of the staff. He opposes our allies in Venezuela, Cuba and Argentina.

Lula has additionally sought to play a mediating function within the Caribbean because the Trump administration has escalated its threats and actions in opposition to Venezuela and Colombia whereas increasing the scope of its maritime extrajudicial killings to the Mexican Pacific.

Admittedly, it’s a unusual supply to make given there is just one get together engaged in precise hostilities, and it reveals no signal of backing down. It’s also price recalling that Lula’s relations with the Nicolás Maduro authorities have soured for the reason that summer time of 2023 when he single-handedly blocked Venezuela’s membership to the BRICS affiliation.

Nonetheless, any try to forestall additional US escalation within the Caribbean, nonetheless unikely, is welcome — not only for the sake of peace and stability in Latin America but additionally within the US.

The Soufan Group, a assume tank targeted on worldwide politics and safety, has echoed our current warnings in regards to the potential blowback on US soil from launching all-out conflict in opposition to extremely organised, closely armed drug cartels, a lot of that are lively in the principle city centres of the US and even in some rural areas.

By looking for the “whole elimination” of the cartels, the Trump administration dangers placing the US on the trail in direction of one other clumsy, short-sighted and disastrous conflict whose reverberations are prone to be felt a lot nearer to dwelling, the assume tank warns. As a substitute, it’s essential to act “in a reasoned, authorized, moral and ethical manner, guided by affordable expectations of the probability of success”.

The possibilities of that occuring with the likes of Trump, Hegseth and Rubio operating the present are just about zero, particularly with Secretary of Struggle Pete Hegseth reportedly pressuring US navy leaders to signal non-disclosure agreements in expectation of them talking out in opposition to conflict crimes sooner or later.

Prioritising Strategic Minerals

Lula’s pushback in opposition to Rubio, each in private and non-private, does seem like assembly some success, nonetheless, in response to the Argentine geopolitical analyst Bernabé Malacalza. In an interview (in Spanish) with Diario Crimson, he stated:

“Lula’s place has taken Marco Rubio out of the sphere, not less than within the negotiation. He was not seen on the negotiating desk throughout the first assembly, and that’s as a result of firmness of the Brazilian president.”

The current thaw in relations between the Trump administration and the Lula authorities is basically attributable to strategic elements, says Malacalza, specifically the dispute between the US and China over management of uncommon earth supplies.

There’s a key issue at play right here: the restrictions that China has imposed on uncommon earths. Brazil is the second largest reserve on this planet. That makes it enticing to the US.

China controls 60% of uncommon earths and 90% of refining, however the US can be keen to spend money on Brazil. What we’re seeing now’s the start of a negotiation.

However Lula is adamant that Rubio ought to play no half within the talks. He’s not the one Latin American chief to have publicly objected to Rubio’s main function within the escalating tensions within the Caribbean in current days. Colombian President Gustavo Petro accused Rubio of appearing as a “brake” on hemispheric dialogue:

Marco Rubio has grow to be a sectarian impediment in peaceable relations between the US and the Americas.

Petro additionally highlighted the US’ growing isolation on the UN, in obvious reference to the truth that nearly the whole worldwide group — 165 international locations — voted in favour of ending the blockade on the island of Cuba. Solely seven international locations, together with the US and a few of its closest allies, voted to take care of it.

Petro is true that the US is remoted on this subject, and has been for many years. What he ignores, nonetheless, is that much more international locations voted in opposition to or abstained on this yr’s movement than in earlier years’. The seven international locations that voted in opposition to had been the US, Israel (quelle shock!), Ukraine (ditto) Argentina, Paraguay, Hungary, and North Macedonia. The international locations that abstained included all three Baltic states, Ecuador, Costa Rica, Czechia, Poland and Morocco.

Infographic map displaying countries voting for against or abstaining on UN resolution against Cuban embargo green highlights for votes in favor red for against gray for abstentions with totals 165 for 7 against 12 abstentions and 9 not voting

The Empire Strikes Again

Petro’s vocal criticism of US international coverage has already led to the cancellation of all US assist to Colombia ostensibly meant for the combat in opposition to drug trafficking. As well as, the US Treasury has positioned Petro on the listing of the US Workplace of International Belongings Management (OFAC), recognized colloquially because the “Clinton Checklist” – a registry that features individuals and entities suspected of hyperlinks to drug trafficking, prohibiting them from making transactions with the US monetary system.

Tensions between Bogota and Washington escalated in September, when Petro eviscerated US coverage in Latin America and Israel’s genocide in Gaza from the rostrum of the UN Basic Meeting. He even referred to as for he formation of a global job power to cease the genocide in Gaza. The Trump administration responded by dropping Colombia from its listing of dependable companions within the combat in opposition to narcotics. It additionally revoked Petro’s US visa.

Petro’s inclusion on the “Clinton Checklist” is already taking a toll. On Wednesday, firms working at Madrid’s Barajas airport refused to refuel the airplane on which the Colombian president was travelling to Saudi Arabia out of concern of committing critical violations of OFAC rules. In response to El Tiempo, the presidential airplane was transferred to a Spanish navy base the place it refuelled and was in a position to proceed on its solution to Saudi Arabia.

To what extent these retaliatory actions are being set by Rubio himself, it’s tough to know. Trump himself is just not precisely recognized for his magnanimity. However one factor that’s nicely established is Rubio’s obsession with toppling the Communist authorities in Cuba and allied governments in Nicaragua and Venezuela. In April, he even posted a tweet celebrating the US and the Cuban Democratic Revolutionary Entrance’s disastrous Bay of Pigs “invasion” of Cuba.

Considered one of Rubio’s first acts as secretary of state was to reinstate Cuba as a rustic that sponsors terrorism. In all equity, the Biden administration stored Cuba on the listing till only a few days earlier than leaving workplace, when it took it off. So, actually nothing a lot has modified.

Sanctioning Cuban Docs and Nurses

The place issues have modified considerably is within the sanctions enviornment. Rubio’s State Division has imposed much more sanctions on the struggling island nation, which is nearly definitely exacerbating the electrical energy shortages which might be piling important stress on the inhabitants.

In a brand new low for US international coverage, the Trump administration has been making an attempt to forestall among the world’s poorest international locations from availing of the medical help offered, usually freed from cost, by Cuba’s medical missions. From our March 18 put up, Caribbean Nations Blast US Plans to Sanction Cuban Medical Missions Across the World:

On February 25, Rubio’s State Division introduced visa restrictions for each authorities officers in Cuba in addition to another officers on this planet who’re discovered to be “complicit” within the island nation’s abroad medical help applications. The sanctions would lengthen to “present and former” officers and the “instant household of such people,” and will additionally embody commerce restrictions for the international locations concerned.

In essence, the US authorities is accusing Cuba of utilizing compelled labour, even likening abroad Cuban medical personnel to slaves. If this newest sanctions gambit is profitable, it’s going to have crippling results on a Cuban economic system that has been minimize out of the US-dominated monetary system for years and is now grappling with nationwide energy outages. It would additionally harm dozens of the world’s poorest international locations that rely on Cuban medical missions exactly at a time when a lot of them are dealing with the prospect of looming debt crises.

One such nation is Jamaica, which Rubio visited a few days in the past. At a press convention alongside the nation’s prime minister, Andrew Holness, Rubio tried to current his case in opposition to Cuba’s medical missions. Minutes later, Holness gave Rubio a education on the fact of Cuba’s medical missions. He stated that the Cuban docs and nurses “have been extremely useful”, serving to to fill “a deficit in well being personnel” in Jamaica, primarily ensuing from the migration of Jamaican nurses and docs to “different international locations”.

The Most Highly effective Sec State Since Kissinger?

As was clear from day one, Trump’s appointment of Rubio as secretary of state and his appearing nationwide safety advisor, making Rubio arguably essentially the most highly effective sec state since Henry Kissinger, may solely bode sick for Latin America. In an article cross-posted right here, Medea Benjamin and Nicholas Davies warned that “Rubio’s disdain for his ancestral dwelling in Cuba has served him so nicely as an American politician that he has prolonged it to the remainder of Latin America”:

He has sided with excessive right-wing politicians like Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil and Javier Milei in Argentina, and rails in opposition to progressive ones, from Brazil’s Ignacio Lula da Silva to Mexico’s widespread former President Lopez Obrador, whom he referred to as “an apologist for tyranny” for supporting different leftist governments.

In Venezuela, he has promoted brutal sanctions and regime change plots to topple the federal government of Nicolas Maduro. In 2019 he was one of many architects of Trump’s failed coverage of recognizing opposition determine Juan Guaido as president. He has additionally advocated for sanctions and regime change in Nicaragua.

In March 2023, Rubio urged President Biden to impose sanctions on Bolivia for prosecuting  leaders of a 2019 U.S.-backed coup that led to massacres that killed not less than 21 individuals.

The appointment of Rubio has additionally been a nail — hopefully not the final one — within the coffin for any hopes of peace in Ukraine or the Center East.

In Latin America, Rubio isn’t just attacking left-leaning governments; he’s additionally pressuring courts within the area to put off former right-wing leaders dealing with critical legal expenses. They embody Bolsonaro, who in September was sentenced to 27 years and three months in jail for plotting a coup in opposition to the Lula authorities. As readers could recall, the prosecution of Bolsonaro was the principle cause cited for Trump’s imposition of fifty% tariffs on Brazilian items.

Rubio’s response:

In a current panel dialogue on CNN Brazil, the previous Brazilian ambassador to the US, Rubens Barbosa (1999-2004), stated the diplomatic strain to launch Bolsonaro had not come from the White Home however somewhat from Rubio himself. Now that the US is in determined want of latest shares of uncommon earth minerals, of which Brazil is the world’s second largest provider, the problem of Bolsonaro’s imprisonment is now moot.

Much more contentious is the way in which during which Rubio has meddled in Colombia’s authorized system to guard former President Alvaro Uribe Vélez, who was not too long ago discovered responsible on expenses of fraud and witness tampering and sentenced to 12 years’ home arrest. It was the primary time in Colombia’s historical past {that a} former head of state had been criminally convicted.

In July, Rubio stated the ruling in opposition to Uribe constituted a “political assault” by “radicalised” judges. In response, 17 US congressmen and ladies signed a letter calling on Rubio to cease meddling  within the authorized case in opposition to Uribe, arguing that his assertion “is opposite to the rules of the rule of regulation, sovereignty and judicial independence.”

However Rubio obtained what he — and Colombia’s right-wing opposition — wished. On October 22, the Supreme Court docket in Bogota overturned the conviction in opposition to Uribe, acquitting him of all expenses of bribery and procedural fraud.

A Real Narco-President

Uribe is much and away Colombia’s strongest political determine. He was the primary president to be re-elected in 100 years after he handed a constitutional reform permitting his re-election. He additionally has documented ties to drug traffickers. In response to a 1991 US Protection Intelligence Company report that was declassified in 2004, Uribe was a “shut private pal of Pablo Escobar” and was “devoted to collaboration with the Medellín [drug] cartel at excessive authorities ranges.” 

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Uribe has been accused not simply of collaborating with the Medellin drug cartel but additionally of fostering the expansion of unlawful paramilitary teams, which had been answerable for a lot of the human rights abuses of the previous three many years. Once more, from the US Nationwide Safety Archive:

In a collection of declarations throughout the previous yr, three former staff of “La Carolina” ranch in Yarumal, Colombia, stated that the Uribe household, and particularly the previous president’s brother, Santiago Uribe, had a detailed and pleasant relationship with the presumed chief of the “Doce Apóstoles” (Twelve Apostles), a loss of life squad that prosecutors say focused petty criminals, drug addicts and the presumed supporters of rebel teams just like the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and the Nationwide Liberation Military (ELN).

There has lengthy been a notion in Colombia that Álvaro Uribe’s insurance policies, first as governor of Antioquia and later as president, helped to foster the expansion of unlawful paramilitaries, that are answerable for a lot of the human rights abuses dedicated in current many years. As governor of Antioquia, Uribe was probably the most outstanding proponents of state-sponsored civil militia teams often called “Convivir,” a few of which had been fronts for, or labored in live performance with, Colombia’s infamous paramilitary military, the United Self-defense Forces of Colombia (AUC).

Identical Outdated, Identical Outdated

So, in sum, the US authorities has imposed financial sanctions on Colombia’s present president and his household on the spurious declare that he’s a drug trafficker, with out presenting a shred of proof, whereas doing every part it will possibly to spring from (dwelling) jail a former Colombian president whom the DIA itself suspected was a drug trafficker, and whose ranch previously served because the operational base for a paramilitary loss of life squad.

That, I suppose, is how issues roll when Marco Rubio is accountable for US international coverage whereas on the identical time advising President Trump on nationwide safety issues. Nonetheless, as John Mearsheimer factors out in his newest interview with Decide Napolitano, which, as all the time, is price a watch, that is actually not so completely different from how issues have all the time been between the US and Latin America — not less than for the reason that early 1900s:

For the reason that starting of the twentieth century the US has been allergic to having a authorities in Latin America — South or Central America — that’s left leaning. And any time we see a authorities that’s left leaning in Latin America, we nearly all the time put our gun sights on it…

We’ve been doing this lengthy earlier than Marco Rubio was born. This primary sample of intervention in Latin America has a wealthy custom, actually going again to the early 1900s. I feel Rubio exacerbates the state of affairs. He actually hates the regime in Cuba, he’d like to topple that regime, and I feel it’s due partly to the very fact he’s a Cuban-American, and he views Venezuela and Cuba as birds of a feather.

Which means he’s completely blissful going after Venezuela however that doesn’t means he’s going to overlook Cuba… However I feel, to be trustworthy, if Rubio disappeared from the scene, we’d nonetheless be pursuing this silly coverage in opposition to Venezuela.

Not solely that, however there may also be legions of Latin American’s comprador class — individuals like Maria Corina Machado, Javier Milei, Jair Bolsonaro and Daniel Noboa — simply begging to do the US’ bidding. Some issues by no means change.

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