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Barring the US’ capability to barter an finish to the struggle in Ukraine with itself and the Europeans, the battle is prone to drag on till Russia inevitably finishes it on the battlefield. As a part of that effort Moscow continues to decimate Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. In simply the previous month, Russian airstrikes have knocked out greater than half of Ukraine’s pure gasoline manufacturing, and widespread electrical energy outages are commonplace.
To not fear, although. “Greece To Provide Ukraine With US Pure Fuel For Winter,” Bloomberg introduced on November 16.
From the very first days of Russia’s full-scale invasion, Greece has been serving to us, working along with Europe and with different companions in order that we are able to attain the circumstances underneath which peace turns into attainable. And we really worth your assist and your dedication. At the moment now we have an… pic.twitter.com/tN83Mjnamh
— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) November 16, 2025
From Bloomberg:
Beneath the framework of the potential settlement between DEPA and Naftogaz, LNG originating from the US is anticipated to be transported by way of “Route 1,” supplied collectively by the gasoline transmission system operators of Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Moldova, and Ukraine, the businesses mentioned.
In different phrases, US LNG goes from the Gulf Coast to a floating storage regasification unit at Alexandroupoli, is regasified, after which travels by way of pipeline networks from Greece to Bulgaria to Romania to Moldova to Ukraine.
That is resulting in fairly a number of celebratory takes that Europe’s grasp plan is all coming collectively:
Over the previous few days, Europe’s power panorama is coming collectively like puzzle items.
The start line is Greece’s long-term US LNG cope with Enterprise World — Greece, already the Japanese Med LNG hub, now secures secure US volumes to dominate provide to Southern Europe, the… https://t.co/ZwQWBoRCQP pic.twitter.com/7Ppteppdro
— Gulf2Med (@Ethan_0502) November 16, 2025
🇷🇺🇹🇷🇬🇷🇺🇦🇺🇸 Russia’s MFA spokesperson Maria Zakharova simply issued a pointy warning to Greece (Nov 20, 2025), accusing Athens of “overtly hostile acts” and promising “acceptable response measures.”
The set off? The power and protection offers Greece signed with Zelenskyy this week –… pic.twitter.com/rd7M4T5tAr
— Avi Avidan (@avavidan) November 21, 2025
But when one thing sounds too good to be true…
Plan Makes No Sense
All the concept that Greece utilizing US LNG goes to maintain the warmth on lights on in Ukraine by way of the winter is ludicrous on a number of ranges. The obvious one is that Russia can nonetheless strike Ukraine’s energy infrastructure—until there’s some secret hands-off settlement for US LNG routed by way of Greece.
The second, doubtlessly much more highly effective than the primary, is the legal guidelines of math. Let’s shortly scan some numbers.
In response to Athens, within the first half of 2025, 81% of Greece’s LNG imports originated from the US—nearly double in quantity in comparison with the identical interval in 2024. Sounds nice, proper?
The full quantity of Greece’s US LNG imports over the primary half of 2025? Roughly 1.5 billion cubic meters (bcm). To place that in perspective, Greece’s complete consumption of gasoline in 2024 was about 6.6 bcm.
Now, Bloomberg and others declaring that Ukraine will probably be saved this winter don’t delve into the main points of the deal, however in accordance with Greek media, it’s for 13.68 GWh of capability per day. That’s roughly 0.16 bcm complete for December, January, and February, and March, and is anticipated to web someplace between 2 to six million euros for DEPA, Greece’s state-owned gasoline firm.
To be truthful, the Bloomberg piece mentions the truth that earlier this month Athens signed a cope with the Gulf Coast LNG behemoth Enterprise World. That deal is for no less than 0.69 bcm per 12 months for 20 years, but it surely doesn’t begin till 2030, and the quantity is trivial within the grander scheme of issues.
I used to be by no means nice at math, however one thing doesn’t add up right here. So what’s actually happening?
Serving to US LNG Exporters
Whereas the Greek LNG offers are being offered as a part of an effort to save lots of Ukraine, they’re actually extra about Türkiye and its Russian gasoline imports, in addition to Washington’s overarching imaginative and prescient for power flowing Westwards from Central Asia and the Caspian with out the involvement of both Iran or Russia. That’s a tall process, however little by little Washington is inching towards that aim—even when it damages Europe within the course of.
Let’s begin with Türkiye. A key NATO “ally” straight importing piped Russian gasoline? We all know how that labored out for Germany. Moscow claims it has foiled quite a few makes an attempt to do the identical to the Turkstream pipeline, which brings pure gasoline from Russia to Türkiye throughout the Black Sea after which into southeastern Europe. After the transit settlement between Russia and Ukraine expired on 1 January 2025, TurkStream grew to become the one remaining main pipeline route for Russian gasoline into Europe.
Even when TurkStream doesn’t meet the identical destiny as NordStream, the EU plans to get fully off Russian gasoline by the top of subsequent 12 months, and it’s already working to control Turk Stream gasoline out of the EU. Brussels’ plan unveiled final month goals to finish the humorous enterprise of labeling Russian gasoline as Turkish. The doc states:
“The Regulation ought to subsequently presume that pure gasoline imported into the Union (…) arriving through TurkStream (…) originates in or is exported, straight or not directly, from the Russian Federation, thus changing the requirement to submit proof of the nation of manufacturing. In case it’s claimed that pure gasoline arriving at these borders, interconnectors, or interconnection factors is underneath a ‘transit’ process by way of the Russian Federation, strict controls ought to apply.”
We’ll see how strictly it’s enforced, however whether it is, it’ll have a serious impact on the power markets in southeastern Europe.
Bizarrely, Athens is celebrating this provision, which was proposed by the Greek power minister, aiming to “place Greece as a pivotal participant within the Euro-American power axis and reinforcing its ambition to change into a regional power hub.”
I’m unsure how a number of regasification services make Greece a hub, however right here’s the rub. The lack of TurkStream would crush Greece. Because the Greek Power Press famous again in 2024:
LNG imports on the Revythoussa facility have remained subdued over the previous few months as gasoline importers have proven a transparent choice for extra competitively priced Russian pipeline gasoline being rebranded as Turkish pipeline gasoline – to keep away from sanctions imposed on Russia – and coming into the Greek market through the nation’s Sidirokastro gasoline entry level on the Greek-Bulgarian border.
In 2024, Greece received 51.6% of its complete gasoline importsm by way of that Sidirokastro Entry Level. That’s an entire lot of dear American LNG that’s going to need to be unloaded simply to energy Greece, not to mention get Ukraine by way of winters and make Greece right into a gasoline “hub” as some are proclaiming. The one method Greece can presently ship American LNG north is as a result of it’s getting Russian gasoline by way of TurkStream.
But it surely’s not simply Greece that the EU’s blocking of TurkStream will damage. TurkStream has a capability of 31.5 bcm of pure gasoline a 12 months, roughly half of which stays in Türkiye, and the remainder continues on to the Balkans and Central Europe. Serbia and Hungary are the first European shoppers. And Turkstream exports into Europe have just lately been at all-time highs:
Europe is successfully doing to itself what Washington has lengthy tried to do.
TurkStream took place after the US labored to torpedo the Russia-Bulgaria South Stream pipeline again in 2014. The undertaking would have transported Russian gasoline underneath the Black Sea, making landfall in Bulgaria after which passing by way of Serbia and Hungary into Austria.
As a substitute Russia pivoted to Türkiye the place Erdogan was much less vulnerable to US strain and opened TurkStream in the beginning of 2020 regardless of US sanctions on corporations concerned within the development of the pipeline.
Extra just lately, Washington tried to make use of Bulgaria to dam the move of gasoline from Turkiye onto Europe, however Hungary nixed that plan by threatening to veto Bulgaria’s entry into the Schengen space.
Black Sea Technique
American assume tanks and officers have been speaking about their designs for the Black Sea area for years.
Former Secretary of State for European and Eurasian affairs James O’Brien advised the Senate Overseas Relations Committee a number of years in the past that, “No matter path we take leads us to the Black Sea.”
O’Brien additionally defined to the committee that one of many primary aims of utilizing Ukraine in an try to weaken Russia is to strengthen NATO and American enterprise pursuits within the Black Sea area. What precisely does that imply?
The Atlantic Council does properly to sum up Washington’s place: “Türkiye can change into an power hub—however not by going all-in on Russian gasoline.” The thinly-veiled risk concludes with the next:
Exploring phantom alternatives of power cooperation with Russia on the expense of actual dangers of getting uncovered to US and EU sanctions won’t remodel Türkiye into an power hub. Fairly the other, it could spell the top of this dream.
One of many US’ prime aims (if not the highest goal) is to get international locations off of Turkstream and change it with US-controlled power.
But we’ve seen that LNG exports from the US to Greece don’t even fulfill all the nation’s home wants, so how is Washington going to make up the 15 bcm/12 months from TurkStream flowing into Europe?
The US must ramp up deliveries at an unprecedented velocity. There’s additionally the long term concern that new gasoline manufacturing might change into costlier as a result of gasoline producers are operating out of the top-tier acreage.
Athens’ offers may strengthen its strategic place within the so-called Vertical Hall from Greece to Ukraine for now, however that evaporates if TurkStream flows into Europe go offline.
Enterprise World, which signed the cope with Athens to produce no less than 0.6 bcm yearly might doubtlessly ramp up future deliveries. It’s presently searching for federal approval to double the export capability of its main facility south of New Orleans, which might assist it problem the world’s prime two exporters, QatarEnergy and Cheniere Power. However once more that is much less about serving to Ukraine or Greece than it’s guaranteeing markets for all that LNG.
US exporters are overly depending on the European market as Qatar, Australia, and Russia get pleasure from higher entry to the rising Asian markets. Demand in a deindustrializing Europe can also be shrinking, however there may be nonetheless market share available in Europe and opponents to push out. Chief amongst them is Russia.
That seems to be the technique for now.
What Does Europe Do With out TurkStream?
Maybe the proposed EastMed pipeline, which might ship pure gasoline from deposits within the east Mediterranean to European markets, will probably be resurrected, however Washington has by no means been a fan. Let’s enable former Undersecretary of State Victoria “Fuck the EU” Nuland clarify why:
“Frankly, we don’t have 10 years, however in 10 years from now, we need to be far, much more inexperienced and much more various” in power sources, Nuland mentioned. “So what we’re in search of inside the hydrocarbon context are choices that may get us extra gasoline, extra oil for this quick transition interval.”
That was almost 4 years in the past. In the meantime, Europe’s reliance on extra expensive LNG imports from the US—which when processing and transport are taken into consideration are extra environmentally harmful than coal—continues to rise.
What in regards to the demand that Türkiye ship extra non-Russian gasoline to Europe?
Properly, that has been tried. The EU wished extra Azeri gasoline piped by way of Türkiye, however Baku is at its limits. One cause Azerbaijan isn’t going to have the ability to fulfill calls for that it improve flows to Europe is as a result of Russia is not laundering as a lot gasoline by way of Azerbaijan to the EU resulting from Western-supported friction between Baku and Moscow.
There’s once more speak in regards to the Trans-Caspian Pipeline, which might ship gasoline from Turkmenistan to Azerbaijan and onto Türkiye and Europe, but it surely’s a pipedream. There’s no method Russia and Iran are going to permit it. Türkiye had a small gasoline swap cope with Turkmenistan and Iran during which Iranian gasoline was pipelined to Türkiye in change for Turkmenistan sending gasoline to Iran, however Washington killed that as a result of Ankara can’t be cooperating with Tehran.
Some are floating the thought of LNG ships crossing the Caspian moderately than a pipeline, however the economics there aren’t nice.
Who is aware of, although? One should keep in mind that financial sense was way back thrown out the window in Europe. Geopolitical issues and the quixotic quest to inflict defeat on Russia are the driving elements at play. And the crazies within the EU are completely content material to destroy their international locations in pursuit of that aim.
Can the US make up for the quantity from Turk Stream? Nearly definitely not.
Will American LNG be costlier for receiving international locations? Sure.
However as Greece, Europe, the US, and the Western media champion the US cope with the newly topped gasoline hub of Greece as “safe” and “dependable,” up is down, and it’s clear they’ll persuade themselves of something.
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