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by Calculated Threat on 12/02/2025 08:26:00 AM
At present, within the Calculated Threat Actual Property E-newsletter: Ultimate Have a look at Housing Markets in October and a Look Forward to November Gross sales
A quick excerpt:
After the Nationwide Affiliation of Realtors® (NAR) releases the month-to-month present dwelling gross sales report, I choose up further native market knowledge that’s reported after the NAR. That is the ultimate have a look at native markets in October.
There have been a number of key tales for October:
• Gross sales NSA are primarily unchanged YoY by October, and gross sales final yr have been the bottom since 1995! And the YoY comparisons for November and December will likely be tougher.
• Gross sales SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual charge) have bounced round 4 million for the final 3 years.
• Months-of-supply is above pre-pandemic ranges.
• The median value is up 2.1% YoY, and with the will increase in stock, some regional areas will see additional value declines – and we would see nationwide value declines later this yr (or in 2026).
Gross sales at 4.10 million on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Fee (SAAR) foundation have been on the consensus estimate.
Gross sales averaged shut to five.38 million SAAR for the month of October within the 2017-2019 interval. So, gross sales are about 24% under pre-pandemic ranges.
…In October, gross sales in these markets have been up 2.4% YoY. Final month, in September, these identical markets have been up 7.7% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA). The NAR reported gross sales have been up 2.9% YoY NSA, so this pattern is shut.
Vital: There have been the identical variety of working days in October 2025 (22) as in October 2024 (22). So, the year-over-year change within the headline SA knowledge was just like the change in NSA knowledge (there are different seasonal components).
…
Extra native knowledge coming in December for exercise in November!
There’s rather more within the article.
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