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That’s precisely what EJ Antoni did in “Biden’s Recession” (August 1, 2022):
By way of how we outline it or what marks a recession, the fundamental understanding is that when the financial system shrinks for 2 consecutive quarters, so three months, after which one other three months, that’s a recession. The explanation that the White Home has been making quite a lot of hay of, oh, that’s not official definition, blah, blah, blah. Okay. I suppose there isn’t any technical official definition, however I’ve taught loads of economics programs. That was what we utilized in each single class. That’s what you’ll see in most, if not all economics textbooks. That’s been the understanding for the final 100 years. So the concept that is by some means new or not true, I dismiss that out of hand.
I feel many individuals can be stunned to know that the US nationwide accounts went again to 1922. I personally am solely in a position to receive BEA knowledge again to 1947, however maybe Dr Antoni has some particular knowledge he’s whipped up.
I daresay I’ve taught extra courses in macro than Dr. Antoni has (at UC Berkeley, UC Santa Cruz, UW Madison). I’m fairly sure I by no means stated “2 consecutive quarters of destructive GDP progress is the definition of a recession”.
There’s a motive why I don’t. It’s associated to why the NBER’s Enterprise Cycle Courting Committee waits a very long time after an apparent peak to declare recessions — as a result of the information are revised, generally very lengthy intervals after the information are first launched, thereby altering our understanding of the trail of GDP.
For instance this, think about GDP as of the advance launch for 2022Q2, and the newest (2025QQ2 2nd launch):
Determine 1: Actual GDP from 2025Q2 2nd launch (black), and 2022Q2 advance launch (mild blue), each in logs 2021Q4=0. EJ Antoni’s recession shaded mild blue. Supply: BEA through FRED, ALFRED.
This re-envisioning shouldn’t be unusual. The 2001 recession was solely briefly (for a number of vintages) characterised by two consecutive quarters of destructive progress.
Furthermore, Dr. Antoni (if he’s keen to acknowledge that the (quarterly*) GDP knowledge from BEA begins solely in 1947) needs to be acquainted with the 1947 expertise of two consecutive quarters of progress, not accompanied by a NBER willpower of recession.
Curiously, Dr. Antoni as not too long ago as a 4 months in the past argued that the two quarter criterion ought to not be used, within the case of 2025H1, ought to Q2 progress be destructive…
Addendum:
* Commenter John Corridor accurately factors out BEA GDP knowledge on the ANNUAL frequency goes again to 1930.
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