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Inventory Market Outlook coming into the Week of November sixteenth = Uptrend
ANALYSIS
The inventory market outlook exhibits an uptrend for U.S. equities, however the index hasn’t overcome latest technical weak spot.
The S&P500 ( $SPX ) rose 0.1% final week. The index sits on the 50-day transferring common and ~10% above the 200-day transferring common.
Similar breakdown, totally different week. The ADX is bearish. Institutional exercise exhibits elevated promoting ( 5 distribution days ), however value recovered to 50-day transferring common by Friday’s shut, so the indicator is combined. On Steadiness Quantity is bullish. Since technical indicators haven’t confirmed any modifications, the general outlook stays bullish.
SPX Value & Quantity Chart for Nov 16 2025
PERFORMANCE COMPARISONS
Healthcare ( $XLV ) led sectors larger for the second week in a row. Client Discretionary ( $XLY ) not solely underperformed, but additionally fell from impartial to bearish bias. Industrials ( $XLI ) additionally dropped to bearish.
S&P Sector Efficiency from Week 46 of 2025
Small Cap Progress ( $IWO ) considerably underperformed, whereas Low Beta ( $SPLV ) outperformed. Small Cap Progress and Worth, together with High quality ( $IWO, $IWN, $QUAL ) moved from Impartial to Bearish.
Sector Type Efficiency from Week 46 of 2025
Gold ( $GLD ) regained a few of its luster and led property larger. Bitcoin ( $IBIT ) underperformed by a large margin, dropping greater than 9% and persevering with the latest sell-off. There have been no modifications to bias.
Asset Class Efficiency from Week 46 2025
COMMENTARY
One other week, one other save by a Friday bounce from the 50-day transferring common. The S&P500 continues to be up 20% since turning bullish earlier this 12 months, however has solely managed to rally ~2% over the previous month. Greater than half of the sectors are bearish, and the identical will be stated for sector types.
When you’re bullish, you’re hoping that value has been consolidating whereas establishments rebalance their holdings, forward of a Santa Claus rally to finish the 12 months. When you’re bearish, you’re seeing a topping course of as establishments lock-in earnings by promoting Expertise and Giant/Mega cap development to retail buyers. Hopefully, you’re neither and simply watching value to sign a path. It’s doable for each narratives to be right.
The longest U.S. authorities shutdown, with funding secured by way of January 30, 2026. So we’d have to do that once more in about 2 months. 4th quarter GDP might be negatively impacted, however we gained’t understand how a lot till subsequent 12 months.
Talking of information, we must always see information releases return to their regular schedules as nicely. This week we get FOMC minutes on Wednesday, present houses gross sales on Thursday, and one other spherical of Fed speeches. And don’t overlook Nvidia ( $NVDA ) earnings on Wednesday after market shut.
Greatest to Your Week!
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Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Financial institution of St. Louis, Hedgeye, Stockcharts.com, TradingEconomics.com, U.S. Bureau of Financial Evaluation, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, TradingEconomics.com
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