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Inventory Market Outlook getting into the Week of July sixth = Uptrend
- Common Directional Index: Uptrend
- Institutional Exercise: Uptrend
- On Steadiness Quantity: Uptrend
ANALYSIS
The inventory market outlook exhibits a seamless uptrend for U.S. equities.
The S&P500 ( $SPX ) gained 1.7% final week. The index sits ~7% above the 50-day transferring common and ~8% above the 200-day transferring common.
All three technical indicators stay bullish heading into the week, with the index exhibiting sturdy value motion for the reason that quarterly possibility expiration on June 23.
SPX Value & Quantity Chart for July 06 2025
PERFORMANCE COMPARISONS
A constructive week throughout all sectors final week, with Supplies ( $XLB ) main the pack, and Utilities ( $XLU ) citing the rear. Shopper Staples ( $XLP ) and Healthcare ( $XLV ) rejoined the opposite sectors with bullish bias.
S&P Sector Efficiency from Week 27 of 2025
All sector kinds have been inexperienced final week as properly, with small cap worth ( $IWN ) and Momentum ( $MTUM ) bookending efficiency. No bias adjustments final week, all of the kinds stay bullish.
Sector Model Efficiency from Week 27 of 2025
Oil and Equities ( $USO & $SPY ) outperformed different asset lessons, whereas bonds ( $IEF ) misplaced some floor. Oil and Gold ( $USO & $GLD ) returned to bullish bias (from impartial); bonds returned to impartial.
Asset Class Efficiency from Week 27 2025
COMMENTARY
The summer season buying and selling season is right here and that usually brings decrease buying and selling volumes and fewer “massive” strikes within the indexes. This 12 months could also be completely different, if the primary half was any indicator.
No indicators of weak point within the labor market but, with JOLTs / NFP knowledge surprisingly constructive. Each Manufacturing and Companies PMI’s have been barely increased as properly. Each of those knowledge factors pushed estimates for FOMC price cuts additional into the longer term.
The U.S. Congress handed its newest tax and spending invoice, which is heavier on spending than taxes and sure has a stimulative impact on the economic system within the near-term.
This week lacks main macroeconomic knowledge, however count on a flurry of headlines nonetheless, for the reason that 90-day tariff “pause” ends mid-week. On Monday, the U.S. begins informing different international locations of the tariff price on their imports, set to start out on August 1. The U.S. reached an settlement with Vietnam final week, however most different international locations are in some stage of agreeing to agree on frameworks. The scenario in all probability isn’t resolved quickly; Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent implied the aim is to be achieved with commerce offers by Labor Day.
Greatest to Your Week!
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Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Financial institution of St. Louis, Hedgeye, Stockcharts.com, TradingEconomics.com, U.S. Bureau of Financial Evaluation, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
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