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Inventory Market Outlook coming into the Week of June twenty ninth = Uptrend
- Common Directional Index: Uptrend
- Institutional Exercise: Uptrend
- On Steadiness Quantity: Uptrend
ANALYSIS
The inventory market outlook continues to indicate an uptrend in place, with fairness indexes returning to all time highs.
The S&P500 ( $SPX ) gained 3.4% final week. The index sits ~6% above the 50-day shifting common and ~6% above the 200-day shifting common.
SPX Value & Quantity Chart for June 29 2025
All three technical indicators are bullish after final week’s worth and quantity motion.
PERFORMANCE COMPARISONS
S&P Sector Efficiency from Week 26 of 2025
The Communications sector ( $XLC ) led to the upside with Know-how ( $XLK ) a detailed second, because of Magazine 7 firms. After lately main shares increased, Vitality ( $XLE ) bought off with oil costs. No adjustments in bias final week.
Sector Fashion Efficiency from Week 26 of 2025
All kinds gained floor final week, with Excessive Beta ( $SPHB ) main the best way and Excessive Dividend ( $SPHD ) citing the rear. Low Beta and Excessive Dividend kinds ( $SPLV & $SPHD ) bounced again to bullish bias.
Asset Class Efficiency from Week 26 2025
Bitcoin and Equities ( $IBIT & $SPY ) outperforming different asset lessons, reflecting a risk-on surroundings. Oil ( $USO ) cratered, falling nearly 12% and giving again a bit of greater than half of it’s acquire over the previous 4 weeks. Oil and Gold ( $USO & $GLD ) retreated to impartial bias, whereas bonds ( $IEF ) make one other swing into bullish territory.
COMMENTARY
Geopolitical headlines proceed to drive market volatility as we shut out the June and the second quarter. Battle deescalation and easing tensions within the Center East mitigated the latest spike in oil costs, whereas social media posts regarding commerce offers with Canada and China prompted giant, intraday worth swings in equities. This surroundings will prolong into early July, no less than, as markets key-in on the expiring suspension of “Liberation Day” tariffs.
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell testified earlier than Congress final week, specializing in the potential inflation in response to tariffs. He repeated latest feedback that the FOMC well-positioned to attend and see how the financial system responds earlier than making a call on rates of interest.
Sturdy items orders spiked in Could, rising 16.4%, after dropping ~7% in April, highlighting tariff uncertainty shifting via provide chains.
PCE confirmed inflation rising in 0.1% in Could, and that’s after an upward adjustment of 0.1% to April’s Headline and Core figures.
| PCE (y/y) | Precise | Prior |
Anticipated |
| Headline | +2.3% | +2.2%* | +2.3% |
| Core | +2.7% | +2.6%* | +2.7% |
And eventually, the ultimate GDP revision reveals the financial system contracted by 0.5% within the first quarter, down from the second estimate at -0.2%, and falling 1.1% year-over-year. The third estimate was decrease primarily on account of downward revisions to client spending and exports.
A brief buying and selling week forward, with U.S. markets closing early on Thursday and fully on Friday for Independence Day.
Greatest to Your Week!
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Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Financial institution of St. Louis, Hedgeye, Stockcharts.com, TradingEconomics.com, U.S. Bureau of Financial Evaluation, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
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