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Inventory Market Outlook coming into the Week of October fifth = Uptrend
ANALYSIS
The inventory market outlook continues to point out an uptrend for U.S. equities.
The S&P500 ( $SPX ) rose 1.1% final week. The index sits ~3% above the 50-day shifting common and ~11% above the 200-day shifting common.
All three indicators are bullish.
SPX Value & Quantity Chart for Oct 05 2025
PERFORMANCE COMPARISONS
Healthcare ( $XLV ) was up ~7% final week(!), besting all different sectors by a large margin. After it’s latest run up, Vitality ( $XLE ) misplaced a few of it’s momentum, thanks partially to Crude Oil, and registered the weakest returns. Healtcare and Actual Property ( $XLRE ) improved to Bullish bias, whereas Supplies ( $XLB ) slipped to impartial.
S&P Sector Efficiency from Week 40 of 2025
Excessive Beta ( $SPHB ) outperformed final week, with Small Cap Progress and High quality ( $IWO & $QUAL ) proper behind. Momentum ( $MTUM ) was the one shedding fashion. Excessive Dividend ( $SPHD ) moved again to bullish bias from impartial.
Sector Model Efficiency from Week 40 of 2025
Bitcoin ( $IBIT ) obtained its mojo again, leaping ~13%, and reclaimed bullish bias. However, Oil ( $USO ) dropped ~7% final week and returned to bearish bias…only one week after popping ~5% shifting to bullish.
Asset Class Efficiency from Week 40 2025
COMMENTARY
Final week’s knowledge releases confirmed August job openings ( JOLTs ) elevated barely. The ISM Manufacturing survey present a small enchancment as properly, whereas providers had been a bit decrease. The primary course, Non-Farm Payrolls, wasn’t launched because of the U.S. authorities shutdown, so different tea leaves want studying previous to the subsequent FOMC assembly.
Whereas there’s been numerous noise about rates of interest and unemployment, the final indexes proceed to march increased. Even a little bit of volatility beneath the floor of the market (when it comes to sectors and kinds) hasn’t performed a lot to sluggish it’s advance.
Finest to Your Week!
P.S. In the event you discover this analysis useful, please inform a good friend.
In the event you don’t, inform an enemy.
Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Financial institution of St. Louis, Hedgeye, Stockcharts.com, TradingEconomics.com, U.S. Bureau of Financial Evaluation, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, TradingEconomics.com
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